The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...BECOMING SCATTERED IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO 1000 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 39. EAST WIND 10 MPH.

TONIGHT...NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS MIXING WITH AND RAIN IN THE
EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 31. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH.

SATURDAY...RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW
ACCUMULATION TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

Temperatures warmed up a little yesterday to turn our snow to rain. The tram reached 34f degrees early yesterday morning. Around 2pm the temperatures started slowly falling again down to the 30f we currently have in place.

We received moderate rainfalls yesterday with a 16mm total at the Tram Summit. The first 8mm came in as rain leaving no net increase but as temperatures cooled accumulations started. From 9pm to 6am we received 8mm of our 16mm leaving behind 7cm of new snow... This shows you that you can assume you may have as much as double this amount of new snow at higher elevations.

Eaglecrest is much the same. They received considerable precip totals with a 22mm total. Once it cooled off they to received 7cm of new snow from the last 10mm of precipitation. Once again you can assume you have higher amounts near summit and ridgeline.

Day before yesterday we received 6+cm of new snow... More in places. Winds were quite high. I would be concerned with the windslabs that developed two days ago... Check to see how much additional snow you have in windloaded areas.

Also check to see how that snow is bonding to the old snow surface which will be critical to assess overall stability. Yesterday skier triggered slides were wide spread at Eaglecrest on most all aspects from poor bonding. Time will improve this bond but make sure you recognize red flags of instability existed yesterday and weakness may still be present.

We did not receive much new snow at weather station elevation in the last day but once again we are placing additional load on the windloaded areas from two days ago and we have poor bonding in place in general. At higher elevations on Douglas you could see quite a bit more snow. For example Eaglecrest snowed 6cm of new snow at mid mountain yesterday morning but 7\" of new snow on top at higher elevation. So with 22mm of precip yesterday you could see 2-3 times the 7cm accumulations we had at the weather station.

Most of last nights snow came in without much in the way of wind. But recognize it simply further loaded the weak layers put in place from the snow and the winds the day before.

This mornings winds are mild with the tram at 4-6mph out of the SE and Eaglecrest is showing 8-12mph out of the SW.

With this in mind avalanche danger is MODERATE today. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible to likely. Small avalanches in specific areas; Use caution in or under steeper terrain and in avalanche zones especially in windloaded areas near summit and ridgeline.

The forecast for today calls for light winds, not much in the way of precipitation, and a lowering freezing level over the next 24 hours. Avalanche danger should slowly decrease.

The more time you give this new windloaded snow to bond in the starting zones the better. Time is your friend. Danger is reducing over the next 24 hours for tomorrow.

We have lost 13 lives to Avalanche in the United States in the last 3 weeks. If you recognize the conditions that lead to avalanche you will see that many of these could have possibly been avoided. To read the facts behind the issues go to http://avalanche.org/accidents.php

Its terrible to see but we need to continue to build education and share with our friends. Many of these things are obvious mistakes if you have been around for a while. Skiing out of bounds near ski areas right after big storms... many of them with no partners, no avalanche gear, and no hope. It is very sad.

My heart goes out to all those who have lost loved ones to avalanche. We only hope that by sharing how things happen we can look at those for the lessons learned and hopefully save a life by learning from someone elses mistakes.

Be safe out there! Work and train with your partners!

Eaglecrest is hosting an Backcountry Safety Awareness and Companion Rescue Course Saturday March 5th from 8:30am-3:30pm.

This course is free and sponsored by the Department of Public Safety.

During this day long course you will learn about avalanche terrain, weather, and stability assessment tests. You will also learn about Avalanche Rescue as well as transceiver, probe and shovel use.

Please share this offering with your friends. Lets all do out part to maintain a safe backcountry community.

For more information or to sign up please email [email protected]