Urban Avalanche Advisory
Current Advisory as of
March 31, 2023
Expires 7:00 AM the following morning.
Issued By Tom Mattice
Large diurnal swings have led us into spring rapidly... loose wet and wet slab avalanches have been occurring over the last few days and yet yesterday and today cooler temps should limit this activity greatly...
Dangers this morning are currently LOW. With a little more precipitation on the way, avalanche danger will transition up slightly today. Light continued precipitation over the next 24 hours during warming and continued winds will slowly continue to build avalanche conditions around the region...
Cool overnight temps overnight have brought back some level of stability into the snowpack for the early part of the morning and yet precipitation today into tomorrow with light winds will raise avalanche dangers slightly today into tomorrow.
You may see loose wet avalanches at or below the snow line, should rains transition up high enough you may see increased potential for wet slabs... Up above snow line we will slowly continue to build wind slabs today into tomorrow... The storm is not large enough just yet to be overly concerned with Storm Slabs and yet danger for storm slabs is slowly building as well...
Tomorrow appears to be slightly warmer than today and even though precipitation may start to slow early tomorrow, avalanche dangers will continue to climb through tomorrow with continued precipitation, winds, and slightly increasing freezing levels.
Currently its 31f at the tram with winds from ese5-6mph... peak temps yesterday only reached 36f . It was above freezing for part of the last 24 hours yesterday at this level and for most of the time over the last week increasing rapid warming of the snowpack at mid to lower elevations.
Eaglecrest is staying a bit cooler with 28f on summit this am having only reached 29f yesterday and yet slightly lower elevations at powder patch they also reached 30f... not above the freezing mark... Winds there have been moderate reaching ese48mph in the last 24 hours.
We picked up a few inches of new snow at upper elevations from .3" SWE. Not enough to be overly concerning...
The forecast calls for around .3" swe in the hills in the next 24 hours and less tomorrow for the next 24hours. Although not great precipitation rates, avalanche dangers will continue to build slowly over the next 24 hours with continued warming and moderate rains during continued winds.
The National Weather Service Forecasts-
Today- Widespread snow and rain showers early in the morning, then widespread rain showers. Little or no snow accumulation. highs in the lower 40s. East winds 10 to 20 mph.
Tonight- Numerous rain showers. Numerous snow showers late. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Lows in the lower 30s. East winds 10 to 15 mph.
Saturday- Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain and snow showers in the morning. Highs in the mid 40s. Northeast winds around 10 mph.
Primary Avalanche Problem
With a forecast calling for precipitation today and tonight with high freezing levels and continued precipitation well into tomorrow avalanche danger will be growing for loose wet avalanches at or below the snow line...
Tomorrow precipitation rates decrease slightly and yet it continues to warm slightly. This should bring increasing activity to increasing elevations in the region. With enough precipitation and warming wet slabs avalanches will also be possible.Learn more about Loose Wet.
Secondary Avalanche Problem
We have a hard icy bed surface now after several days with sun and temps to above freezing at summit elevations.
Today calls for continued precipitation that should stay as snow up high in the region. Winds will also continue through the day. We picked up several inches of new snow from .3" swe in the last 24 hours and had winds to ese48.3 last night around 7pm at Eaglecrest.
This started to slowly build wind slabs that will likely not bond well to the old snowpack surface. These will be shallow at first and building over the next 24-48 hours.
Even though precipitation rates are forecast to decrease tomorrow the forecast also calls for slightly increasing temps tomorrow during continued winds... Avalanche dangers will continue to build into tomorrow increasing likelihood of these events.
Precipitation volumes are limited which should limit any natural activity and also limit storm slab potential.Learn more about Wind Slab.
Today’s Avalanche Tip
Please recognize this is an urban advisory and not a full backcountry avalanche forecast. We try to discuss trends around the region but to head into the hills you need to be able to make your own educated avalanche decisions.
We recommend everyone playing in the backcountry take a level one avalanche course at minimum.
To understand more about the conditions in the backcountry in the region please go to the Coastal Alaska Avalanche Center at http://CoastalAkAvalanche.org to share your snow and avalanche observations.
You can go there now and note additional information on recent slides in the region.
Please do your part in sharing valuable information and remember as a community, the more we know, the safer the snow.
Be safe and enjoy a great day.