Today's Discussion

With no significant snow in the avalanche track and runout zones avalanche danger remains LOW in the urban paths this morning. If you are up higher in elevation and playing in the snow dangers are more MODERATE with wind loading and rain on snow to increasing elevations with warming today.  Yesterday temps reached 35f at the tram and 34f at Powderpatch limiting snowfall to local summits.

Solar Warming early with continued  precipitation today (rain at most elevations) and warming will likely increase danger to MODERATE for today into tomorrow for wet loose and wet slab avalanches.  Conditions are drying out tomorrow which should decrease danger to LOW on all aspects by tomorrow.

The new snow from the last week is raising concern for wind slabs now warming and wetting to potential wet slabs.

With continued warming today the potential for wet loose avalanches will also increase at lower elevations and climbing in elevation throughout the day.

Todays forecast calls for under .2" swe which could lead to an inch of two of new snow at uppermost elevations in the regions and yet currently most of that will be in the form or rain with 33f at the tram and 34f at Powderpatch.  This is likely to increase dangers for wet loose avalanches and wet slabs yet there is not much snow down low to drive their size.

Dangers linger in wind loaded areas, yet with light precipitation drying throughout the day and moderate winds today dangers will continue to decrease over the next 24 hours.

As temps warm today wet loose/wet slab activity may increase at lower elevations and increasing in elevations as the day continues to warm. yet slides are forecast to be quite small in nature.

With the warm temps, the snowpack should continue to settle and bond rapidly at these near freezing temperatures improving in stability over the next 2-3 days as things dry out and continue to warm.

We received a trace of new snow at both the tram and eaglecrest.  Precipitation rates were lower than forecast with Eaglecrest showing .6" Swe while the tram only received .5" swe.  That was only a few inches of snow at uppermost elevations due to warm temps..

Currently its blowing from the N12-17mph on Sheep Mountain. The tram is currently NE4mph. Eaglecrest is showing ESE12-19mph winds. The peak winds yesterday at Eaglecrest hit ESE39mph and the tram at ESE28mph.  Sheep moujtain saw SSE59mph winds. Combined with the new snow this is enough to build wind slabs over the last 24 hours. Remember the day before winds were even stronger.  Continued lighter winds today and decreasing precipitation should decrease dangers while natural avalanche activity remains possible for wet loose activity.   Shallow wind slabs may be human triggered on steeper open aspects.

Currently its 35f at the tram same as yesterdays high of 35f. Eaglecrest is showing 31f on summit this am down from yesterdays high of 32f. Lower at powder patch we are seeing warmer temps with 34f with yesterdays high touching the same 34f.

Warming temps should help in bonding over time and limit snow volumes at mid to lower mountain. The primary concern is still loose wet slides down low with todays precipitation and warming through the day bringing more wet loose activity to the lower mountain regions increasing in elevations throughout the day.

The National Weather Service Forecasts-

Today- Chance of rain showers and patchy fog early in the morning, then rain showers in the afternoon. Near eaglecrest, chance of rain and snow showers early in the morning, then rain and snow showers in the afternoon. No snow accumulation. Highs in the mid 40s. East winds around 10 mph.

Tonight- Rain showers in the evening, then chance of rain showers and patchy fog late. Lows in the mid 30s. Light winds.

Wednesday- Mostly clear. Patchy fog in the morning. Highs in the upper 40s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday Night- Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Primary Avalanche Problem

Wet Slab

Description

With several inches of snow over the last two days  and with the forecast calling for .2"" more SWE today up high avalanche dangers is increasing for wet slabs and  for wet loose small slides today into tomorrow. .

Sundays winds peaked at Eaglecrest at SE73mph. Current winds are ESE12-13mph. The tram is ENE4mph greatly limiting transport. Remember slabs may be lingering up high with new snow from the last several days and strong winds. Todays solar warming and continued warming and precip may lead to wet slab activity.

Light precip and near freezing temps will help to limit natural activity.

Secondary Avalanche Problem

Loose Wet

Description

We saw a little new snow around the region over the last 72 hours. We will again see light snows at uppermost elevations today yet most of our zones will be in rains.

These volumes are light yet storm slabs are the primary concern with very strong winds Sunday.

Temps have warmed by around 9f average around the region in the last 72 hours leading to rain on snow and wet loose activity down low.  Continued light precip today and increasing temps may lead to new activity at increasing elevations.

With diurnal warming today we expect to see above freezing temps today on the lower mountains and increasing in elevations with the warming of the day. The tram is already at 32f and Powder Patch at Eaglecrest is also hovering at 32f. It wont take much additional warming to start to see more wet loose activity increasing in activity and elevations as we go through the day.

Increasing precipitation today and increasing temps will lead to increased dangers during the warm part of the day. Cooling overnight should help to limit activity at upper elevations and yet dangers are slowly increasing at all elevations today.

Please continue to support the Coastal AK Avalanche Center at

http://CoastalAkAvalanche.org

Your observations help all the forecasters in the region better understand the nature of the instabilities...  Are they widespread on all aspects?  or limited in aspect and elevations.  Are they meeting our forecast expectations or should we revisit our forecasts due to increasing activity?  There is so much these observations tell us...  Please help educate your community by sharing what you see in the mountains and remember...  The more we know the safer the snow.

Be safe out there and enjoy a little new snow while dangers are building around the region today.