Although avalanche control on Thane Road did not get many results avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE today. Natural avalanches remain possible although are less likely today with decreased loading rates over the last 2 days with cool temps. Human triggered avalanches remain likely. These may not be wide spread but we are continuing to see human triggered avalanches. See pics below for a snow machine remotely triggered avalanche from yesterday on Douglas Island. Be aware the beast is still lurking. These slides were triggered from below while playing in a safe area the settlement created a remote trigger for this event.
We have the potential for large wind slab avalanches in specific areas and very large persistent weak layer avalanches in isolates areas. although we are not seeing a lot of activity like we did during the storm its important to recognize these slides are of notable size and hard slabs with quite long fracture propagation. These are dangerous events to be managed and should be avoided. Terrain selection remains the key to safety. Please continue to limit your exposure to avalanche terrain and use mindful safety practices if you choose to recreate in avalanche terrain.
We have multiple weak layers in the snowpack. The storm total for the last week after settling was 57cm yesterday in my study plot most all avalanches will potentially be at least this deep. This storm snow is sitting on a rain crust over a bed of facets that remain quite weak. We also have multiple persistent weak layers deeper in the snowpack that have shown weakness and the ability to produce avalanches over the last few weeks with human triggered slides over 4-5' in depth. We could see avalanches up to a meter deep in these weak layers and in wind loaded locations these weak layers can even be much much deeper. Remember the Eaglecrest avalanche from Sunday was 6-7' deep at the crown.
Although much of the activity has been on lee slopes due to increased loading rates from the wind we have actually seen avalanches on multiple aspects in the region as the weak layer is present on most all aspects.
Eaglecrest Top Temps Low- 23f, High- 25f, Current- 24f. Winds SE19-30 with peak gusts to SW50mph in the last 24 hours. 1cm new snow. 1mm SWE.
Mt Roberts Tram Temp Low- 26f, High- 29f, Current- 27f. Winds SE18-21mph peak gusts to SSW35mph in the last 24 hours. 5cm new snow, 3mm SWE.
The National Weather Service Forecasts-
Today- Cloudy. Chance of rain and snow in the morning, then rain. Near steady temperature in the mid 30s. Southeast winds increasing to 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 40 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight- Windy, cloudy. Snow and rain likely. Snow accumulation around 1 inch. Lows in the lower 30s. East winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to around 45 mph becoming north 10 to 15 mph late.
Thursday- Cloudy. Numerous rain and snow showers. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Highs in the mid 30s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Todays forecast calls for as much as 8" new snow in the hills over the next 24 hours. With continued winds this will keep avalanche danger considerable.