Avalanche Advisory Archive Pre-2016

Date Issued:2014-04-05
Danger:2
Trend:5
Probability:0
Size:2
Problem:0
Discussion:

From the National Weather Service:

TODAY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 800 FEET IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 42. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.

TONIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL 1400 FEET LATE. LOWS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH.

SUNDAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 44. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH.

Over last 24 hours, Mt. Roberts saw temperatures hanging mostly just below the freezing level. Around 3? of snow fell with 0.2? water equivalent. Winds built to 23mph on Sheep Mtn. The snow line stayed around 1000ft.

The end of our 24 hour forecasting period will see the start of a strong warming trend accompanied by significant precipitation. The forecast calls for 0.5? of rain by tomorrow at 7am preceded by up to 4? of snow. Winds are forecast to stay around 10-15mph.

The primary concern today is the effect of warming on small wind slabs and wet point releases. A secondary concern is the persistent weak layer, which is unevenly distributed and could be triggered by a smaller slide.

Today's urban hazard level is MODERATE, with a strongly increasing hazard. Any avalanche activity is expected to remain small today. Expect tomorrows forecast to be higher, with significant rain and warmer temperatures coming.

Tip:

One of the resources we use to look at how much total moisture is forecasted to come out of the sky is the Point Forecast Matrix:

http://nws.noaa.gov/data/ajk/PFMAJK

Scroll down until you see Juneau listed (this list includes major towns in Southeast running North-South). The main two things we are looking at are the temperature values (each covers a 3 hour block), and the QPF value (each covers a 12 hour block). QPF stand for Quantitative Precipitation Forecasted. It doesn't tell you if it will be rain or snow, but it gives a great idea of how much total weight (and thus stress) is going to be put into the snowpack. Keep in mind that this is a sea level elevation forecasting tool.

Another place we look at precipitation values is off of the NWS Point Forecast Hourly Weather Graph tables. The link for this is at the bottom of the regular 7 day forecast page. Below is an example from the tile centered near the Thane/Cross Bay Paths. The expected values are listed numerically for snow and rain, while the probability is represented by the vertical bars.

A single tool often doesn't do the job; it helps to have several resources available. The NWS has done a great job of making these available to the public. Getting to know their myriad of weather products takes time, but can help you form a deeper understanding of what to expect outside.

Forecaster:Peter Flynn