TODAY ... SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 47. EAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.

TONIGHT ... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 22 TO 31. LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY ... PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 43. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH.

No new precip, just \"brilliant sunshine\". Temps are becoming spring like, above freezing at both the Tram and Mt Juneau ysterday. The Tram remains at 1c while Mt Juneau dropped back down to -0.7c last night. Winds remain moderate and out of the E at ridgetop level this morning but should be dropping even more this afternoon.

The main problem today will be small wet slides as temps climb back above freezing, calm winds may allow for significant warming.

The avalanche danger today is MODERATE: Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Use caution in or under steeper terrain and in avalanche zones.

In the backcountry spatial variability remains high. Conditions on the backside of Mt Juneau are different than on the channel side. The same is true of different areas of the Douglas Alps, the Chillkats, and the rest of the Coast Range.

Travelers should be worried about the facet layer above the Jan Melt Freeze crust as well as new wind driven hardslabs. This is true from Ketchikan up to Whitehorse.

COST OF ETERNAL VIGILANCE

As spring progresses more and more people will be pushing out into the mountains to play. As more time passes from things like the Ben Stewart slide, that made the paper, people start to assume that the snowpack is stable.

As forecasters this makes us start to worry about \"warning fatigue\". Warning fatigue is the idea that when told something too many times without immediate consequence people start to ignore it. Like the \"boy-who-cried-wolf\".

The danger doesn't diminish, just people's perception of it because they are told about it, but then it doesn't happen.

We aren't the only forecasters faced with this problem. Tornando forecasters have it, as do hospital workers, and avalanche forecasters around the world.

Sometimes we try to think of different ways to say essentially the same thing:

-?Due to the unpredictable nature of this faceted layer a cautious approach is recommended.?

-?Avoid making assumptions about the presence of this faceted layer based on aggressive tracks on adjacent slopes.?

-?Avalanche conditions continue to improve; however, the February depth hoar above the January Crust is still reactive and has the potential to surprise with nasty consequences.?

-?Avalanches on the mid-February weak layer would be large and destructive. Human triggering is still possible in some areas, so choose well supported terrain and consider the consequences of an avalanche before committing to a line.?

-?The distribution of this buried persistent facet layer is very spotty making avalanche activity on it hard to predict.?

Kind of sounds like a broken record. Our cousins up in Whitehorse at the YAA are dealing with the same issue and sum it up pretty well on their blog:

We are in a low probability-high consequence avalanche pattern, and as the mountains get busier this spring, more people will be venturing into (and testing) untapped avalanche terrain. So remember, to have an avalanche accident you need 3 things: unstable snow, avalanche terrain and people. Snow is really tough to predict at the best of times. The current conditions are really tough to predict, and will likely be that way for some time. Thankfully, terrain choice and group management are things we can control. Consider the consequences of an avalanche in the terrain you?re riding, be aware of the possibility of remote triggering and continue to be suspicious of any steep, unsupported alpine slope. When riding in avalanche terrain, only expose 1 person at a time, spot your partners and never regroup in the run-out of avalanche slide paths.

Joe, Matt and James (Yukon Avalanche Association)