TODAY ... SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 45. EAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. NEAR
DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS ... NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE MORNING.

TONIGHT ... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 26. EAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH
DIMINISHING LATE.

SUNDAY ... SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 43. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

Our winter seems to be as filled with high pressure as our last summer was ... and I thought I lived in a rain forest. No new precip in the last 24hrs. Temps remained below freezing yesterday in the start zones, though just barely, high of -0.5c at the Tram.

NE winds continue. At this point most (though not all) of the snmow available for transport has been moved around. The start zones above the urban paths are pocketed with scoured zones and hardslab.

The main problem today will be small wet slides if the winds drop enough to allow for significant warming.

The avalanche danger today is MODERATE: Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Use caution in or under steeper terrain and in avalanche zones.

In the backcountry spatial variability remains high. Conditions on the backside of Mt Juneau are different than on the channel side. The same is true of different areas of the Douglas Alps, the Chillkats, and the rest of the Coast Range.

Travelers should be worried about the facet layer above the Jan Melt Freeze crust as well as new wind driven hardslabs. This is true from Ketchikan up to Whitehorse.

MANAGING AVALANCHE TERRAIN (5)

TERRAIN AND GROUP MANAGEMENT

In short, this is what's needed: Avoid critical snowpack and terrain features, reduce exposure and move in a timely manner.

Traveling in avalanche country involves critical decisions both on a macro scale (terrain selection) and micro scale (terrain management: dealing with specific terrain features on a slope / group management: organizing people and structuring the act of traveling).

Terrain is the only known and reliable component in the world of snow and avalanches where an infinite number of variables and their combinations spread confusion - terrain doesn't change, but weather, snowpack, avalanche conditions do.

Or to put it another way: Terrain is the only part of the equation with no uncertainty attached to it.

ON THE MACRO SCALE

Schedule oriented terrain choices (touring day is fixed, objective is flexible): The less stable the snow, the less steep the terrain choices need to be - slope angle reduction is the simplest way of minimizing one's exposure to avalanches. Slopes under 30 degrees rarely produce avalanches in our maritime snowpack (as long as such low angle terrain isn't exposed to steeper terrain from above).

Goal oriented terrain choices (touring day is flexible, objective is fixed): Wait for the snowpack to be more stable in order to ski the big and gnarly lines. For us in AK, this often is a very spur of the moment window, too quick after a storm = high instability, too long after a storm = windslab or wind hammer.

ON THE MICRO SCALE

Based on the avalanche problems you are trying to deal with, consider these aspects of terrain selection: terrain configuration, trigger points, terrain traps, slope angle, location, altitude, aspect to wind, aspect to sun, shape, ground cover.

It is an art form to read and utilize terrain efficiently, balancing safety considerations and the draw of untracked snow with effective timeliness. As a novice to backcountry travel, start with Simple Terrain (think ATES scale), especially when in unfamiliar territory, with limited visibility and/or during unusual conditions.

Once the decision is made by all members of the group that a certain slope is reasonably safe to travel, group management techniques to further increase the safety margin should be considered. These need to be real safety techniques, like skiing all the way to an island of safety, not just things that make you feel better like waiting 20 seconds between skiers while still putting 3 or more people at risk at once.

Even good techniques can be abused when trying to make up for poor terrain choices. When applying such techniques, consider the downside of doing so. For example, spreading out or traveling one at a time costs time and limits communication within the group possibly creating other significant problems.

Taking breaks or regrouping after descending a section should be done in the safest terrain possible. While traveling from one island of safety to another have a clear idea and communication among your group as to where the next safe spot is, and what exits are available if something starts moving on you.

It is good protocol to have a defensive riding style in the backcountry. Hucking a cornice or a boulder is the equivalent of putting these trigger points through the stress test - you'd better be very confident in your correct snow and avalanche assessment that doing so won't release the avalanche!

RULES OF THUMB FOR AVALANCHE TERRAIN SELECTION & MANAGEMENT

? Always go through the process of making a tour plan including the avalanche report. Not having a tour plan is like wearing a blindfold, whereas a tour plan enables one to see.

? Avoid terrain as specified in the avalanche danger report, notably with respect to the \"avalanche problems\".

? Never break the \"no-go zones\" rule while on tour. Instead, reassess as part of your post-tour debrief and make changes for the next day accordingly.

? Make a habit of good travel techniques. Even on low hazard days.

? Good travel techniques never trump poor terrain choices (at best, they may contain the damage).

? Manage uncertainty with an extra dose of caution. Uncertainty can exist because of reasons such as lack of knowledge, skill and experience; lack of information; lack of visibility; the inherent nature of the avalanche problem (persistent slabs, complex snowpack), unfamiliarity of the terrain.

? Take an avalanche course, further your avalanche knowledge ? Avalanche education does save lives!

In the end, ask yourself: How much are you willing to pay for these turns? The only thing worse than getting yourself killed, is being part of poor decision making resulting in the death of your backcountry partners.