TODAY...RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL 900 FEET EARLY IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 42. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH.

TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW SHOWERS LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 29. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.

SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 1100 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH.

In the past 24 hours we received a trace of new precipitation at the Tram. As of 0500 no precipitation is currently falling but 0.4? of water (2-3? of snow in upper start zones) is forecasted in the next 24 hours. We are below freezing at the Tram, Mt. Juneau and Eaglecrest this morning. Winds were moderate yesterday morning/afternoon but have calmed down overnight. The winds changed to more of north/northeast direction at the Tram overnight. This will cause some wind loading to occur near the top of our urban slide paths.

Yesterday, we had some light snow in the morning and then precipitation diminished throughout the day. As the visibility improved yesterday we were finally able to get a glimpse of what was happening in the upper start zones and view evidence of natural avalanche activity.

There were several reports of natural avalanches in the backcountry yesterday. There were reports that natural avalanches had occurred in the Dan Moller bowl as well as locations near Eaglecrest. This illustrates that we have a persistent weak layer that continues to be reactive due to increased loading of new snow and wind. The persistent weak layer observed last week is not consistent enough to cause widespread slides in the urban paths though it remains a hazard in the Douglas Alps. We will continue to closely monitor the natural activity and determine how the persistent weak layer may be affecting the urban paths.

The main avalanche problems today are wind slabs and the potential for persistent weak layers. Wind slabs that formed yesterday in our upper start zones may get some additional loading today as the wind continues to transport new snow. I don?t see wind slabs being a major concern in our urban paths, but remember with a change in wind direction different aspects will receive wind loading today. I expect the wind slabs to be sensitive to artificial triggers but not pose a threat to developed structures. There will likely be isolated wind pockets that may release throughout the day. There are likely small pockets of the persistent weak layer in our upper start zones. Although the persistent weak layer is not continuous throughout the urban path?s upper start zones, areas where it is present could become potential trigger points in the weeks to come.

Avalanche hazard is MODERATE today: Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Be increasingly cautious in or under steeper terrain and in avalanche zones.

Today is a good day to use caution when entering Flume/Perseverance trail and avoid being under Thane Rd as a pedestrian.

For backcountry travelers dangerous avalanche conditions exist. Careful snow pack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential. Fieldwork yesterday found wind-sheltered areas continue to harbor large well developed facets that are becoming increasingly sensitive with additional load. Human triggered slides are likely within the new storm snow as well as wind loaded pockets. It is also possible that a small slab release within the storm snow could step down into the persistent facet layer causing a larger avalanche.

Today?s avalanche tip deals with persistent weak layers. Here is a definition of persistent weak layers from the Colorado Avalanche Information Center?s website.

?Certain weak layers tend to stabilize quickly after a storm while other kinds of weak layers take much longer to stabilize. Persistent weak layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

The best ways to manage the risk from Persistent Slabs is to make conservative terrain choices. They can be triggered by light loads and weeks after the last storm. The slabs often propagate in surprising and unpredictable ways. This makes this problem difficult to predict and manage and requires a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty.?

MOUNTAIN SAVVY

Eaglecrest is running an outreach education program for kids age 12 - 16.

http://www.juneau.org/ecrestftp/MountainSavvy.php

March 21st is the last class of the season. It takes place entirely on snow and is for East and West Bowl riders/skiers that are starting to explore Eaglecrest and it's environs off piste.

The program focuses on working with peers and starting to learn the tools for good decision making in the mountains. Safety gear is provided for those who don't have it and kids who take the class this year will be eligible for a raffle of two separate sets of Beacon, Probe, Shovel, and Pack.

Similar programs in Washington and Utah run $150 a day, but a partnership between the Eagelcrest Ski Patrol, Juneau Mountain Rescue, JSP, and many of our local outdoor retailers means Eagelcrest can enroll kids for just $25. For a 4.5hr course it is a great opportunity.