TODAY ... SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 25. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

TONIGHT ... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 9 TO 17 ... EXCEPT AROUND 6 ABOVE IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY ... SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 25. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH.

No new precipitation and temps remain cold, 10f at the Tram. Winds have backed off to below 25kts at ridgetop levels.

More clear and cold with moderate breezes on the way today.

Primary concerns are still sun warming - though less of an issue with the colder temps, and isolated wind slab pockets above a faceted layer.

The potential for large slides that would come close to urban zones and structures is very small.

Hazard is LOW today: Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Normal caution is advised.

Human triggered slides are still possible in backcountry locations, start to consider hard slabs now in wind affected areas. If you are sledding or skiing keep that in mind and travel accordingly.

SPATIAL VARIABILITY 2

Still very variable snowpack out there. Here are some tips from local avalanche forecaster and columnist Ron Simenhois:

The hard truth is that there is no silver bullet for managing spatial variability. But there are a few things that can be done to minimize uncertainty in the back country.

? To start, I don?t trust tracks on a slope. Although, it is not that common for the fourth, fifth or sixth person on a slope to trigger an avalanche. It is not very rare either. Tracks on slope are not a guaranty for stability.

? I always pay attention to obvious signs of instability like recent avalanches, shooting cracks and whumpfs (weakness buried in the snowpack which has a lot of air space between grains).

? I dig a lot of quick pits instead of spending my time in one big pit. I fill the information gap between my pits by tracking the layers I saw in my pit by probing with my ski poles.

? I identify the layers of concern, map their likely distribution in my head and tune my goals accordingly. For example, rain, sun and rime crust are usually elevation and aspect dependent. If I know what type of crust it is and the weather when they formed, I can guest where they are likely to be. On the other hand, surface hoar distribution depends on the sky cover, winds, temperatures and relative humidity. Hence, when I know that there is a surface hoar layer buried in the snowpack I get worried, because guessing where it is far more complicated process.

Clearly, none of the techniques I apply on a backcountry tour completely eliminate uncertainty. Some days are just too hard to manage. On these days I chose to ski mellower terrain and avoid avalanche hazard altogether.