The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...SUNNY...LOCALLY WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 19. NORTHEAST WIND
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH INCREASING TO 65 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS.
OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOCALLY WINDY. LOWS 6 TO 14...EXCEPT
AROUND 1 ABOVE IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. GUSTS DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.OTHERWISE, NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH.

TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 16. NORTHEAST WIND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. WIND CHILL TO 20 BELOW.

Temperatures remain cold today. We have not seen snow in our local mountain environment for nearly a month now. The last new measurable new snow was January 12.

The snowpack remains strong and stable. We will not see a change in avalanche danger until we see a significant change in the weather.

Today and tomorrow calls for TAKU outflow wind conditions but there is essentially no snow available for transport in our starting zones so this should not appreciably change the avalanche danger forecast today.

Be careful out there it is quite hard and slick in places.

Once the conditions become hard or icy it's easy to go fast or at least faster than you might normally ski. The problem begins when you try to stop. On runs that are icy, you can slide sideways just as fast as if you are going straight down the hill, and then it's too late.

When you are going too fast and lose your balance and fall you end up in what I call the \"Slide for Life\". Your body, once it falls on the ice is similar to a bowling ball as it's released from the hand. You gain momentum as you hit the ground only now you are completely helpless.

This is where the \"slide for life\" begins. Gravity, momentum and body weight dictate that you will probably end up sliding down the hill headfirst. Slide into another person, lift tower, tree or other obstacle and you are going to get hurt, probably very badly.

The first rule of thumb is to control your speed on each and every turn you make. You should not accelerate or go faster at the end of your turn. Your speed should be the same at the end of the turn as it is at the beginning. If you find that you miss a turn, go too fast or lose control (as we are all want to do at some point) stop and start again. Most skiers do not realize they are going too fast until it is too late. Don't be foolish. When it is hard or icy, slow it down and use caution, especially if it is crowded. It's easy enough to become distracted or lose your concentration with your own ski technique when you are trying to avoid another skier or snowboarder. This is compounded when you add the element of speed.

If you should fall on an icy slope and find yourself picking up speed, it is important to know how to \"self-arrest\". This is where you are responsible for bringing yourself to a stop under such conditions. Try to get your feet and skis downhill. Once your skis are under you use the edge of your skis to slow yourself down. This only works if you have the time and presence of mind to get the skis under you to help you to stop. If you are on a steep run, you can use your ski pole to self-arrest. Try to put one hand on the top of your ski pole for leverage and the other by the pole basket. Dig the point of the pole into the snow (or ice) to slow your speed. Again this only works if you have the presence of mind and maintain your composure. If you mentally freeze you may lose all chance of slowing yourself down.

So, how do avoid the \"slide for life\". If the run you are on is icy, ski off to the side. This is where you'll find the softest snow. The middle of the trail where everyone skis will tend to be icier. Look a turn or two ahead and see where the snow has piled up. Make your turn through the pile of soft snow. This will give you slightly more control than turning on sheer ice. If you have no choice but to turn on the ice, don't try to grip the ice with your ski edges. It's better to maintain your balance and slide sideways until you find snow soft enough for your edges to grip. Unless you have razor sharp edges it's tough to get the skis to bite or hold under these conditions.

Usually, you'll find icy conditions exist later in the day. Trails that were groomed in the morning will now present themselves as hard icy conditions later in the day. The snow on the groomed runs you skied earlier in the day will be skied off leaving these hard pack conditions. Also, everyone will be heading toward the bottom especially as the lifts close on the backside of the mountain.

The majority of ski accidents occur between 2 and 4pm in the afternoon. Both you and the other skiers on the hill will be tired after a full day on the slopes. This fatigue will translate into slowed reaction time and less muscle response.

Once you know you are tired call it a day, even if it means riding the chairlift or gondola back to the bottom. It is not worth getting hurt trying to squeeze one more run in. A little common sense and some forethought will help prevent you from becoming a ski statistic.