TODAY...RAIN. HIGHS 40 TO 44. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.

TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.

THURSDAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 41. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.

We have had 4.06 inches (103mm) of rain since this storm began. This fell as almost entirely rain into all of the start zones yesterday triggering widespread avalanche activity in most areas.

The snowpack has found ways to drain and shed new water allowing for an increase in stability from yesterday.

With temperatures finally falling below freezing again at the Tram about 4am this morning we will see small amounts of new snow falling in the start zones. However it is expected to warm again this afternoon and it will likely change to rain even up on Mt Juneau by this evening.

The weather service is calling for 0.65 inches of rain (16.5mm) today/tonight with a wetter storm on its way for tomorrow bringing another 1.29 inches (38mm)

This leaves us with two avalanche problems: The small amounts of new snow that fall before the changeover to rain will likely slide off easily once it warms again at higher elevations. These will be pretty small slides.

Then the lower probability but higher consequence event, which is where a pocket of snow isn't draining well, or rocks/cliffs allow a lot of water transport to the bottom of the snowpack and there is a failure at ground level. Basically a glide avalanche.

We didn't see any of those at higher elevations yesterday, and the slides we had took a lot of weight off the snowpack, but it is still possible to see full depth activity especially with tomorrow's rain added to the mix. Since this type of event is unlikely I've kept the size small.

READ A BOOK

http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/383763.Snow_Sense
Short, sweet, to the point, and very readable. Written by an alaskan and despite it's short nature still one of the best avalanche books out there.

www.goodreads.com/book/show/1924.Staying_Alive_in_Avalanche_Terrain
For backcountry recreationalists and many guides this is the goto book for mountain travel. Designed to allow data gathering and decision making within a practical framework.

http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1925.The_Avalanche_Handbook?from_search=true
When you are ready to get serious about your avalanche education this is one of the more complete texts currently available and packed with great information for aspiring snow geeks.