The last week of small precip amounts and warmer temps has helped to consolidate the multi-layer cake that is our snowpack so far this year. The primary concern today is new wind slabs.

In the lower half of the start zones they may be sitting on a tiny rain crust in between low density snow that will easily collapse.

It has been cold enough that all the precip since yesterday has fallen as snow in the start zones. There was active wind transport taking place yesterday afternoon and the bulk of the snow last night fell with 10-30kt winds out of the SE. We have had 24mm of water come down in the last 24hrs at the Tram, this can mean up to 10 inches of snow in the start zones. Despite this; sizes are still not likely to impact structures or reach Thane Rd.

So basically there is reasonable chance of natural avalanches today that did not already go during the night but the sizes are not going to be large enough to reach most developed areas.

The exception to that is the Flume and Perseverance trail systems, where hazard will be high throughout this storm cycle. The East wind that the weather service is calling for often gets diverted by the channel, at the moment it is presenting as a light N wind that will be top loading the Flume & N side Perseverance paths.

Danger for hikers and backcountry travelers will be steady through the day with new slabs likely to fail with human triggers. Remember that a slide doesn?t have to be big enough to hit a house to cause problems for a skier/sledder/hilker!

We sometimes struggle with the science of snow ... but we shouldn't forget the wonder of it either:

THE SNOW STORM

by Ralph Waldo Emerson
Announced by all the trumpets of the sky,
Arrives the snow, and, driving o'er the fields,
Seems nowhere to alight: the whited air
Hides hills and woods, the river, and the heaven,
And veils the farmhouse at the garden's end.
The sled and traveler stopped, the courier's feet
Delayed, all friends shut out, the housemates sit
Around the radiant fireplace, enclosed
In a tumultuous privacy of storm.

Come see the north wind's masonry.
Out of an unseen quarry evermore
Furnished with tile, the fierce artificer
Curves his white bastions with projected roof
Round every windward stake, or tree, or door.
Speeding, the myriad-handed, his wild work
So fanciful, so savage, nought cares he
For number or proportion. Mockingly,
On coop or kennel he hangs Parian wreaths;
A swan-like form invests the hidden thorn;
Fills up the farmer's lane from wall to wall,
Maugre the farmer's sighs; and, at the gate,
A tapering turret overtops the work.
And when his hours are numbered, and the world
Is all his own, retiring, as he were not,
Leaves, when the sun appears, astonished Art
To mimic in slow structures, stone by stone,
Built in an age, the mad wind's night-work,
The frolic architecture of the snow.

...............................

Back to the science - I've posted another pit profile below from yesterday. This was dug on Douglas, but at a higher elevation than the ski area in a zone picked for the way aspect/wind loading will somewhat mimic the start zones on the East side of the Channel. It shows our many crusts, and mostly stable lower snowpack as well as the small rain crust that will likely impact us today.

It should not be used as an excuse not to dig your own pits and make your own backcountry forecast.