The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...SUNNY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 28. NORTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 13 TO 23...EXCEPT AROUND 8 ABOVE IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. NORTH WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.

THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 27. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

We have received about 4.5mm of precip leaving behind about 9cm of new snow in our mountain starting zones.

Temperatures remain cool after within a 5 degree spread over the last two days. The new snow is quite cold and light which would make it easy for wind to transport during the innitial hours of a wind event.

Since last night winds have been 10-20 gusting to 25 around the region. These are North winds that directly load our urban avalanche paths. Near summit and ridgeline the winds are much higher as the tram wind gauge is in a fairly sheltered location from these north wind events.

With the report of one small avalanche in the urban paths this morning avalanche danger remains Considerable.

Natural avalanches possible, potentially destructive avalanches may come near or reach developed areas.

Human triggered avalanches probable. Be cautious of the routes you choose to take.

Please avoid The Flume Trail and Perseverence Trail today. Please also do not walk in the gated areas above the Behrands neighborhood. Please do not walk, jog, or park along Thane Road as well.

We do not expect the size of these events to be catastrophic and yet these avalanches will run quite fast and quite far for their size.

There are 5 red flag indicators of direct action avalanche danger

1) WIND- Winds transport snow faster than it can fall from the sky. light winds do not move much snow. Super high winds tend to strip the snow off the mountains at times. Winds from 10-35mph are most critical for loading. Surging winds move more snow than constant winds as well.

2)Precipitation- Snow and Rain both add new load to the snowpack. The snowpack can handle a lot of stress over time so the quicker the rain or snow loads the snowpack the more it feels the stress. Rains of .1\" per hour for hours on end or 1\" per day or greater are red flags. Snows of 1\" per hour for hours on end or more than 10\" per day are red flag indicators.

3) Temperatures- Rapid rise or fall places additional stress on the snow. Rising temperatures during a snowfall event also puts heavy dense snow on looser lighter snow leading to an upside down snowpack. As you go through the point of freezing you also remove the glue from the snowpack as this new rain eats away at the bonds in the snowpack.

4)Recent Avalanches in the region are a sign.

5) Woomphing, Shooting Cracks as you travel through the mountains, or snow collapsing... like you stand on a pop can and then it collapses under you... are all signs of the snowpack collapsing and having the ability to trigger a slide.

For example today we have a few red flags. Not so much warming so thats not critical today. Not much new snow so thats not highly critical either. Active windloading is present which presents a threat. We have seen recent avalanche activity in the region so there is red flag #2... to determine if there are shooting cracks, whoomphs, or snow collapsing you have to get out into the mountains.

You do not need all three of these indicators to tell you its dangerous. As a matter of fact... simply knowing there have been recent natural avalanches in the region show there is the ability for the snowpack to fail all that is missing is the additional stress to become the trigger and in the case of a person heading into the mountains remember YOU are that trigger.

Stay safe and have a great day!