The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 40. LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 30. LIGHT WINDS.

SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MIXING WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 39. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH
IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

This weeks field work on Mt Juneau confirmed the presence of older persistant weak layers deeper in the snowpack.

The surface layers also had some weakness.

We saw pencil hard windslabs over 4 finger snow that failed in compression tests on isolation of the column at 20cm. We also saw a faceted layer under some old crusts that failed in tests at 100cm deep.

Temperatures stayed just below freezing at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit yesterday while the Eaglecrest summit stayed colder at -2c.

We have received 6.5mm of precip yesterday with 2\" of new snow at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit.

Avalanche danger is LOW at this time for the most part yet MODERATE IN PLACES.

The Tram sumit gauges showed 10-25mph winds yesterday out of the North East while Eaglecrest showed 15-30 out of the SSE. We have experienced winds approaching 50mph on the Mt Juneau ridgeline over the last 3 days which were quite actively loading our urban starting zones. Winds have calmed some now to under 10mph.

If we should see much sun today look to see point release avalanches as snow falls off of trees and rocks in steep areas. On larger longer slopes this has the ability to get a fair amount of snow moving.

I am growing somewhat concerned as to what the next large precip event will bring in our urban enviroment.

Last week the Cross Bay path had two avalanches. The skiers Right side slid to within 200 yards of Thane Road and the skiers left side slid to within 75 yards of the road. The center of the path has not released since early January and it is safe to assume it may have the same deeper weak layers present in the snowpack.

The snowslide creek path has not released significantly in quite some time as well. We did see some small results there with the recent blasting but have had quite a bit of new snow since that time. All three paths that converge on the snowslide creek drainage are quite loaded at this time. Winds over the last 3 days have continued to add to that load as well. The cornice on lookers right of the main chute is also quite large and overhanging. It could fail at any and is very hard to predict. This could become the trigger for a much larger avalanche.

The Behrands Ave Avalanche Path has had numerous notable slides this winter but all from the lower starting zones. The main upper starting zone is VERY filled in and has deep weak layers present. Time will tell how this persistant weak layer plays out.

With not much precip in the forecast the danger rating is mostly low yet recognize in certain paths it may be more MODERATE.

Be aware of windloaded pockets on SW-NW facing slopes on Douglas Island as well as along the channel...

Recognize that lots of direct sun, warming, wind, or heavy new snow loads could make these layers become reactive once again.

Remember if your in the backcountry in these places with windloaded pockets YOU are the trigger and could tip the balance sooner to cause avalanches.

Pick safe lines and enjoy another nice day!

Here is a link to another great article by Ron Simenhois.

Thank you for sharing your knowledge of avalanches with the community Ron!

http://juneauempire.com/outdoors/2012-03-16/kmow-snow-habits-avalanche-terrain