The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...SNOW AND RAIN. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 4 TO 8 INCHES. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION 6 TO 10 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH BECOMING 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING BECOMING ALL SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 31. LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY...CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 38. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

We have received about 16mm of precipitation at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit over the last 20 hours. This left behind about 15cm(6\") of new snow. The Uas site at Eaglecrest is showing a little less snow with about 4\" of new after settlement.

This is coming to rest on some areas of windslab in places as well in our urban enviroment.

Winds started out in the 15-25mph range at the beginning of the storm. More than enough to transport this new snow. During the middle of the storm winds kicked up to over 40mph along the channel and even higher to in the 50's on Douglas Island at the Eaglecrest Summit.

The windloads from over the weekend are on a few isolated south facing pockets adding to the uncertainty of instability in those places. The majority of the mid storm winds were out of our traditional SSE direction loading N-W facing slopes.

Temperatures rose by an average of 5f during this cycle. Placing heavier wetter snow on top of the light snow from the beginning of the cycle.

With a loading rate that was considerable during a period of moderate to considerable warming and high winds, Avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE at this time.

Natural avalanches possible, potentially destructive avalanches may come near or reach developed areas.

Human triggered avalanches probable, especially in windloaded pockets.

As we go through today we expect to see as much as another 10\" of snow at elevation over the next 24 hours. This is Considerable loading. Winds are expected to remain high early on then drop to considerable later today. With todays diurnal fluctuation bringing sea level temperatures up to 38 degrees Avalanche danger is on the rise!

Be aware that with additional windloading, snowloading, and continued warming into late in the day avalanche conditions will continue to build, danger will continue to rise, and the probabality of both natural and human triggered avalanches will continue to rise!!!

Although danger is not yet HIGH and things could be worse... today is a great day to limit your time in Avalanche Terrain, minimize your risk and exposure, and be extra cautious.

Avoid places like the Flume and Perseverance Trail and recognize that in places like Thane Road the glide track is quite filled in, the berm at the bottom is full and it wont take much in the way of snow moving to build enough energy to perhaps hit the road.

Be safe out there and have a great day.

Here is the link to a fatality report from Stevens Pass 10 days ago... The story of 5 people being caught in an avalanche and 3 being killed.

I had known these men for over a decade...they were all very educated on avalanche safety.

This story goes to show you not to overlook things along the way. To continue to reasses the danger levels and make new plans. One must remain flexible, with no preset goals, and always be ready to pull the plug, change direction, or go home.

You will be missed Jim Jack, Chris Rudolph, and Johnny Brennan. Let us hope in some small way your passing saves the lives of countless others.

http://www.nwac.us/media/uploads/documents/accidents/2011_2012/Preliminary_Tunnel_Creek_Avalanche_Accident_2-29-2012.pdf