Avalanche Advisory Archive Pre-2016
| Date Issued: | 2012-02-19 |
|---|---|
| Danger: | 2 |
| Trend: | 3 |
| Probability: | 2 |
| Size: | 1 |
| Problem: | 0 |
| Discussion: | TODAY...SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW LATE. LOWS AROUND 31. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE The National Weather Service reports we will likely see some more new snow this morning in addition to the few inches that fell last night. What snow did fall last night fell during light winds. Upper and mid-elevations saw a short period of warming after midnight but stayed just below freezing. Temperatures will remain near the same threshold up high as the snow line rises to 1000 feet over the next 24 hours. We had light SE winds overnight, mostly around 10kts with peaks around 20kts. These short periods of moderate speeds were capable of transporting snow into lee slopes and start zones. Winds are expected to remain 10-15kts through the forecast period. The current advisory is MODERATE. Natural avalanches are unlikely, but possible with additional load such as a skier or significant change in weather. Expect isolated pockets and wind slabs from direct, and cross loading on N and W slopes at mid to upper elevations. Our Urban start zones have a slightly increased snow load, but are unlikely to avalanche naturally. |
| Tip: | SPATIAL VARIABILITY Spatial variability is an important snowpack concept, and affects how you observe the snow, decision making, and forecasting for the recreationalist and professional alike. Changes in terrain such as boulders, exposed rock, trees, ridges, and bowls all create the potential differences in snow on the ground. Variability can even exist on the scale of inches or feet, which can sometimes make it more difficult to predict snow stability. If you have a long enough avalanche probe, try using it to feel the snow depth several times over a small distance. Chances are you will get a variety of snowpack heights, and may encounter some of the objects or terrain features listed above. A great article from the National Avalanche Center discussing the importance of spatial variability can be found here: |
| Forecaster: | Chris Eckel |