The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...RAIN SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL 600 FEET. HIGHS AROUND
39. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN DIMINISHING LATE. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS AROUND 34. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN LIKELY...MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING. SNOW
ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. SNOW INCREASING TO 1000 FEET IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

At the Mt Roberts Tram summit temperatures finally dipped just below freezing for the first time in 9 days at 4 am this morning. We received 16mm of precipitation in the last 14 hours at that site which left behind 6cm of new snow... quite dense.

Eaglecrest has been barely below freezing as well at the summit and warmer lower down the mountain. The UAS site is showing about 7cm of snow during this same time.

Winds were quite high averaging from 30-50mph. Be aware there may be some sensative windloaded pockets in places. But this wet snow quite often pastes in and bonds well.

In the valley the temperatures have remained well above freezing for several days. With the diurnal fluctuations taking us back into the low 40's for several days and almost to 40 today.

Conditions near summit elevations may be quite stable with the exception of those windloaded pockets. Lower down on the mountain where it really hasnt frozen in days the snowpack is a little more rotten.

With this 16mm of precip overnight and a little more in the forecast for today avalanche danger is MODERATE at this time.

Natural avalanches unlikely, yet possible in places with windloading or at mid to lower mountain elevations where the snowpack if rotten.

Potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches possible, especially wet slides with this new super wet snow at lower elevations where it came in on a sluch surface that was not frozen solid in place. Most activity would be wet slides that are quite slow and tend to be more point release than slab. But in super steep open areas these could entrain more mass.

Have a great day and be careful out there everyone!

Wet Snow Avalanche:

Most avalanche professionals make a hard distinction between dry snow and wet snow avalanches because they are such different beasts. They are caused by different processes, they fail and fracture differently, they are triggered differently and they move differently down the slope. Really, there is a continuum between wet and dry avalanches and professional workers use the words: dry, damp, moist, wet and saturated to describe the continuum. Wet avalanches cause relatively few avalanche fatalities, consequently, they are studied less and are not as well understood.