The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...INCREASING CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 42. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 500 FEET. LOWS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH LATE.

SUNDAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 800 FEET INCREASING TO 1400 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH.

Temperatures have not been below freezing at the Mt Roberts Tram summit in the last 8 days.

Mid mountain at Eaglecrest the temps have dipped below freezing 3 of the last 11 days.

At our summit elevations we have seen quite a bit more freezing and the snowpack at these elevations is quite stable...

In our valley bottoms we had seen below freezing nights for the last week. Daily Diurnal Fluctuations have been taking the afternoon temps well above freezing.

With moderate above freezing temperatures again today be aware that the mid mountain snowpack and lower snowpack is becoming much more springlike. Temperatures are not locking the snow back up.

We are seeing much more creep and glide in the snowpack at mid to lower mountain elevations.

In general things are fairly safe. Yet recognize at these mid to lower mountain elevations the possibility of natural avalanches exists. Snow will start to shed off of the rocks on the super steep pitches. It wont take much movement to entrain additional mass. There is the possibility of point release wet natural avalanches. You may even see some small slabs pop out on steep, unsupported, unanchored convex rolls.

We have also seen quite a few glide avalanches in the region in the last few days. These are not typically a concern. They are very difficult to skier trigger. They are also very difficult to predict.

To help protect yourself against these types of avalanches do not linger in avalanche terrain. Get in and get out... making sure to use good practices with spotters in place, transceivers, probes and shovels...

They are a unique event but noteworthy as temperatures remain above freezing for these extended periods of time.

Tonight we will see additional precipitation enter our forecast region once again. There is potentail for the danger levels to rise once again.

Glide avalanches:

Glide occurs when the entire snowpack slowly slides as a unit on the ground, similar to a glacier. Don't mistake glide for the catastrophic release of a slab avalanche that breaks to the ground. Glide is a slow process, that usually occurs over several days. Glide occurs because melt water lubricates the ground and allows the overlying snowpack to slowly \"glide\" downhill. Usually, they don't ever produce an avalanche but occasionally they release catastrophically as a glide avalanche. So the presence of glide cracks in the snow do not necessarily mean danger. It's often difficult for a person to trigger a glide avalanche but at the same time it's not smart to be mucking around on top of them and especially not smart to camp under them.

We tend to find them in wet climates and when they occur in dry climates they do so in spring when water percolated through the snow or sometimes during mid winter thaws.

When do they come down? Like an icefall, they come down randomly in time--when they're good and ready--not before. You would think that they would come down during the heat of the day or when melt water running along the ground reaches its maximum. But oddly enough, they tend to release just as often with the arrival of cold temperatures following melting as during melting itself. It's hard to play a trend with glide avalanches. They come down when they're good and ready and it's impossible to tell when that is. Just don't spend much time underneath them.

Here is a link to a short video on glide avalanches.

http://www.fsavalanche.org/Encyclopedia.aspx