...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS
MORNING...

TODAY...SNOW SHOWERS...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOWACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 23 TO 29. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

MONDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 34. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

Snow accumulations so far have been less than were forecast, but have come with warming temps and winds varying in direction. Mt Roberts Tram, and the UAS Snow Study site at Eaglecrest both received about 20 cm, but also saw winds up to 40kts last night.

The steadily warming temps are creating a bit of an upside down snowpack in the new snow, which already rests on top of the older patchwork of scoured and windslabbed zones. Today's Easterlies will vary from SE around to NE tonight and are just strong enough to create some wind loading.

The Thane, Behrends and White Path slide paths are all loading. Caution should definitely be used along the Flume and Perserverance Trails today.

Slides are not expected to be large, but these are still powder avalanches with airblasts that carry blowing snow that can damage trees, people and structures.

In the backcountry areas the upside down snowpack will be tender in all areas, and all aspects until it has a chance to settle. Windloaded zones will increase the size of the potential slabs. Be aware that avalanches will often propagate from thin to thicker parts of the slab, and use extreme caution in backcountry travel today.

Avalanche Danger is CONSIDERABLE today: Smaller natural avalanches likely, potentially destructive avalanches may come near or reach developed areas.

Human triggered avalanches are very likely, especially in windloaded areas. Unstable slabs are likely on a variety of aspects and slope angles today.

AVALANCHE MYTHS

\"Loud noises trigger avalanches\"

Although it's a convenient plot device in the movies (and most recently on Jeep commercials) noise does NOT trigger avalanches. It's just one of those myths that refuses to die. Noise is simply not enough force unless it's EXTREMELY loud noise such as an explosive going off at close range. Even sonic booms or low flying helicopter trigger avalanches only in extremely unstable conditions in which natural avalanches would likely occur on their own anyway. In 90 percent of avalanche fatalities, the avalanche is triggered by the weight of the victim, or someone in the victim's party.

\"An Avalanche is a bunch of loose snow sliding down the mountain\"

Avalanche professionals call these \"sluffs.\" Loose snow avalanches account for only a very small percentage of deaths and property damage. What we normally call avalanches are \"slabs\" or cohesive plates of snow that shatter like a pane of glass and slide as a unit off the mountainside. Picture a magazine sliding off the table, with the victim standing on the middle of the magazine. This is why avalanches are so deadly.

Avalanches \"strike without warning\"

We often hear the word \"strike\" used in the popular media. Stock market crashes, meteor impacts and lost love may strike without warning, but avalanches almost always have obvious signs. Second, avalanches don't \"strike\". They happen at particular times and in particular places for particular reasons. To repeat again because it's so important: In 90 percent of all avalanche accidents, the avalanche is triggered by the victim, or someone in the victim's party. Natural avalanches occur because new or windblown snow overloads weak-layers or because of rapid warming, but there's almost always obvious signs of instability by the time avalanches come down on their own.

\"If you see an avalanche coming, get out of the way\"

Well, at least you can try. An average-sized dry avalanche travels around 80 mph and it's nearly impossible for someone to outrun an avalanche or even have time to get out of the way. A fast snowmobile has some chance but everyone else has a slim chance at best. Also, avalanches that descend from above kill very few people. Do I sound like a broken record here; the vast majority of avalanche incidents are triggered by the victim or someone in the victim's party.

\"All the avalanche experts are dead\"

We're happy to report just the opposite. Skilled avalanche professionals enjoy a very low avalanche fatality rate compared to other groups. Less than one percent of all avalanche fatalities involve avalanche professionals.

\"Spit to see which way is up\"

It doesn't matter which way is up. You can't dig yourself out of avalanche debris. It's like you are buried in concrete. Your friends must dig you out.