The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...SUNNY...LOCALLY WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 25. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...STRONGEST NEAR INTERIOR PASSES AND DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOCALLY WINDY. LOWS AROUND 8
ABOVE...EXCEPT AROUND 4 BELOW IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. STRONGEST NEAR INTERIOR PASSES AND DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS.

SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...LOCALLY WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 10 ABOVE.
NORTHEAST WIND 30 MPH NEAR INTERIOR PASSES...DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH IN THE MORNING. WIND CHILL TO 20 BELOW ZERO.

We received quite a bit of new snow this week with winds up to as high as 80 mph.

This created weak cornices in places and wind slabs in many locations. They were quite reactive throughout the event. Yet at the end of this event the temperatures hovered very close to 0 in our mountain starting zones. This combination of high winds and warm temperatures helped to rapidly consolidate the snowpack. Densities were quite high.

Since the end of this first storm temperatures have fallen by 16-18 degrees helping to solidify the snowpack in place. Be aware cornices may still be quite weak in places.

Winds have been low since that time yet are expected to pick up greatly today out of the Northeast.

Yesterday evening at the tram we picked up just under 4mm of precipitation (about .16\"). This delivered over 6cm of new snow. (about 2.2\"). Often referred to as COLD SMOKE>>> At the Eaglecrest UAS site during this same time we received 14cm of new snow (5.6\") which has now settled into about 3-4\". Still very low density powder.

This low density new snow will be very easily transported by the winds today. Expect to see tender shallow pockets of snow developing on SW faces throughout the next 24 hours.

With this in mind avalanche danger is MODERATE at this time. But only for this new snow, and weak cornice areas.

Natural avalanches unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas.

Human triggered avalanches possible.

Its going to be a great day. Tomorrow will be much colder and the snow will be much more wind affected.

Be sure to bundle up. Its one of those days when you dont want to leave much skin exposed due to the possibility of frostbite.

HAVE A GREAT DAY EVERYONE>>> and be safe...

Remember your LCES at all time...

Place your Lookouts....

Communicate with your partners...

Identify your escape routes any time skiing in avalanche terrain.

Ski from areas of safety to areas of safety.. Simple practices to use and live by...

As well as Tranceiver, Probe, and Shovel... Dont go into the backcountry without them...

AVALANCHE SAFETY CHECK LIST

BEFORE YOU LEAVE
? Expand your knowledge - take an avalanche awareness class.
? Avalanche beacons, probes & shovels? Know how to use them & practice.
? Check weather / avalanche forecast / local authorities.
? Develop broad mental image of the snowpack and danger you expect.
? Be sure your planned route is suitable for current and forecast conditions.
? Choose competent, compatible partners with similar ability, experience, goals.
? Have several alternative objectives to provide other options for success.
? Leave trip itinerary with family or friend.

IN THE AREA-

Human Factors - Are there issues that overshadow wise decisions?
? Trip Goals: Is a single objective (a summit, a slope) blinding you?
? Feeling too complacent, too familiar, invincible? Watch it!
? More people does not mean safer snow - avoid herd mentality.
? Objective not subjective decisions - don?t base decisions on emotion.
? Are your sport skills outpacing your avalanche skills?

Terrain - Is it suitable for avalanches?
? Slope Angle - Measure it! (30-45 degrees are most common)
? Slope Aspect - Leeward? Wind-loaded? Shaded? Sun-exposed?
? Slope Shape - Convex rolls? Open? Bowl? Gully? Corniced?
? Slope Anchors - Vegetation, Rock outcrops, Benches: Are they anchors or weak points?
? What are the consequences if a slide releases?
? Terrain Traps - Narrow gullies, cliffs, crevasses, trees, rocks, creeks, lakes.

Snowpack - Might it slide? Is it unstable?
Obvious Signs of Instability
? Recent avalanches on similar slopes.
? ?Whumphing? sounds or shooting cracks.
? Consistent ?Very Easy? or ?Easy? failures upon testing.
? HIGH or EXTREME Avalanche Forecast Danger Level.

Other Clues of Instability
? Fresh snow in the past 24 hours.
? Sudden temperature rise or first sunshine on new snow.
? Consistent ?Easy? or ?Moderate? failures upon testing.
? CONSIDERABLE Avalanche Forecast Danger Level.
? Moderate or low danger do not mean NO DANGER.

Weather -
Has it, is it, or will it contribute to instability?
? Precipitation - Type, amount, intensity, duration.
? Wind - Windblown snow loading lee slopes, further stressing snowpack?
? Temperature - Rising temps or sun causing loss of snow strength?
- Prolonged cold temps causing faceting?

Trends in weather are most important; be aware of potential changes with elevation.

TRAVEL -
? Avalanche beacon check at trailhead.
? Look at Terrain, Weather and Snowpack clues - speak up!
? Stay on ridge lines / flanks of open slopes.
? One person at a time crosses suspect slopes - cross high.
? Watch those crossing suspect slopes.
? Follow using the same track; move quickly between safe areas.
? Be ready to ditch gear that inhibits swimming motions: No pole straps or leashes; use releasable bindings.
? Continually look for escape routes - what if the slope releases?
? Choose safe rest areas & campsites - check for hidden tracks & runout zones -
consult map.
? When descending, always stop off to the side of any slope.
? Maintain situational awareness and Reassess continually.

IF CAUGHT -
? Call out!
? Attempt to escape toward flanks (sides).
? Ditch awkward gear.
? FIGHT, swim, grab a tree or rock, self-arrest.
? Keep mouth shut.
? When slowing, make strong thrust toward surface.
? Push one hand toward surface.
? Make air pocket in front of face with other hand.
? Try to dig yourself out.
? Attempt to remain calm.

RESCUE -
? Organize, appoint leader, avalanche lookout, question eyewitnesses (plan beforehand).
? Note who is missing.
? Assess further danger.
? Identify escape routes.
? All beacons to ?receive? mode.
? Establish and mark victim(s) last seen area(s).
? Search for surface clues - check them, then leave them in place.
? Focus search on major deposits and likely catchment areas below last seen area(s), around trees, rocks, bends in path, etc.
? Beacon Search What Who
Phase 1 obtain signal everyone
Phase 2 home in on signal everyone getting signal
Phase 3 pinpoint signal one searcher (others probe and dig)
? Probe for victim until strike is made.
? Manage digging so as not to re-shovel.
? Care for victim - First Aid ABC?s - keep victim warm.
? All beacons back to ?transmit? mode.
? Don?t contaminate site with your equipment.