The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...RAIN. SNOW LEVEL 900 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL 500 FEET IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 32. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

FRIDAY, SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 31 EARLY. TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

Over the last 40 hours we have seen quite a good storm front move through. Precipitation totals have continually been higher than the forecast amounts. Winds have been quite high.

We have received 70mm (2.8\") of precipitation at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit in the last 40 hours. 40mm(1.6\")of that came in the last 24 hours.

Where the UAS gauge is reading 30cm (1') of new snow after taking into account overall snowpack settlement and consolidation, the tram summit gauge is showing closer to 45cm (18\"). This shows us that spatial variability is quite high and densities are likely quite high as well.

This is during a time that the temperatures rose by 8+ degrees at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit and 10+ degrees at the Eaglecrest Summit. The majority of this warming came in the first 16 hours but Eaglecrest Summit temps rose by 3 degrees in the last 24 hours and the tram summit rose by about the same right up to 32f at one point. Temperatures have cooled by about 1 degree in the last few hours. But are still very close to freezing at both the Tram Summit and the UAS Mid Mountain Gauge at Eaglecrest.

Winds over the last 40 hours have been quite high as well. Starting off blowing out of the SSE at 25-70mph then slowing a little bit in the last 15 hours to 20-45mph which still generates considerable windloading.

Spatial Variability is quite high as I mentioned.

This new snow came in on top of a relatively hard icy surface in most places which we would typically equate to quite poor bonding. This new snow also came in through great warming which we would typically equate to a very upside down snowpack. But winds were quite high in this storm front from the very beginning. This tends to break down the snowflakes and make them much smaller right from the first minute which can help them to pack to much higher densities than a typical no wind snowpack would see.

Where we expected to see a great weakness in the snowpack yesterday and natural avalanche activity I was suprised to actually see very little weakness in the snowpack and almost no natural avalanche activity.

Over the last 24 hours we saw a majority of our moisture and for a 40 hour period accumulations totals were very high with considerable to high winds.

Even considering the lack of weakness and activity yesterday with the overall conditions in place it is quite difficult for me to say avalanche danger is less than HIGH today.

With an additional 1\" of precipitation in the forecast models for the next 24 hours avalanche danger will remain HIGH today.

Potentially destructive natural avalanches likely to come near or reach developed areas, natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

It appears the majority of the precipition is heading south today. By mid day tomorrow we should start drying out and cooling off. Avalanche danger will start to fall at that time.

Today is a great day to avoid places like the Flume and Perseverance trail.

Remember that the berm on Thane Road is also quite full and it will not take much of an avalanche with these high volumes of snow to reach the road.

Time is your friend. The more time we give this new snow to settle and bond the stronger it will become.

Have a great day and be safe.

Mother Nature often provides clues or Red Flags when the snowpack is unstable.

1. Recent avalanche activity: Recent avalanche activity is the indisputable sign of instability. If you see recent avalanche activity the snowpack is unstable.

2. Wind: Wind creates dangerous slabs; if the wind is blowing or has blown recently it has probably created dangerous wind slabs and increased the avalanche danger.

3. Intense precipitation: Precipitation often increases the avalanche danger. The more snow that falls and the faster it falls the more apt it is to create dangerous conditions. And wet snow or rain falling on cold dry snow almost always causes avalanches.

4. Whoomping sounds or cracks: Cracks in the snow surface and/or \"whoomping\" sounds mean that a weak layer is collapsing and that the snowpack is unstable. This is a sure sign of instability; stay on low angle slopes.

5. Rapid temperature rise: If the temperature is rising; watch out! Often it will be cold powder skiing in the morning and then warm up significantly in the afternoon. This rapid warming can transform fluffy powder into a dangerous slab. This newly formed slab can change stable powder conditions into unstable slab conditions in a very short time. In a settled more spring-like snowpack, if you are sinking into wet snow 6\" or more, the snowpack surface is becoming saturated and wet slides could occur. Roller balls, snow snails and point releases all indicate wet unstable snow.