The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...RAIN. TEMPERATURES AROUND 41 IN THE MORNING...THEN FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL
700 FEET IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 30. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH LATE.

MONDAY...NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 32 EARLY. TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

We received just over an inch of rain in the last 24 hours at the Juneau Airport. Mountain totals are assumed to be higher.

Driving winds out of the SSE have been blowing for the last 36 hours ranging from 25-65 knots. Currently averages are still from 25-35 knots.

Temperatures rose over the last 48 hours by 5-6C degrees to +3C at the Mt Roberts Tram and 0c at the Eaglecrest Summit. The temperatures started to fall again around midnight last night and are currently just below freezing on our local mountain gauges at this time.

We received around 37cm of new snow early in the storm. Some perhaps do to wind loading. Later in the storm after temps rose we saw quite a bit of settlement and consolidation to where the overall gain at the UAS mid mountain gauge at Eaglecrest is only showing about 20cm of new snow. Still perhaps showing some windloading but overall not a lot of new snow at mid mountain elevations due to the warm temperatures.

We would expect to see additional new snow load above these 1700' weather sites but overall not a lot as temperatures did hover at 0 all the way to the Eaglecrest Summit for over 10 hours yesterday afternoon into evening.

Avalanche danger is MODERATE at this time.

Natural avalanches unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas.

Human triggered avalanches possible.

With falling temperatures over the next 24-48 hours, winds slightly lowering and then shifting direction later tonight, and moderate precip totals that continue falling in the next 24 hours, avalanche danger will decrease over the next 24-48 hours.

Be aware in our upper mountain starting zones with the high winds from yesterday and precip totals over 1\" with some new snow as well, we may see some windloading and sensatavity in our windloaded mountain starting zones today. The longer you give these areas with the falling temperatures the more stable they will become.

Have a great day.

Here is another great read from the Couer Alaska Avalanche Forecaster Ron Simenhois. This article was published in the Empire in early December but I had not shared it previously and wanted to be sure to do so at some point as it showcases some great things to remember.

Essential Tools for Venturing into Avalanche Country

By Ron Simenhois juneauempire.com Copyright 2011 Juneau Empire. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
December 9, 2011 - 04:01am
Essential tools for venturing into avalanche country
Winter can never come too early for me. By mid-August I was restlessly looking for the first colors of fall. Long before snow fell, I had already looked at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration?s seasonal forecast, lined up a workshop or two and refreshed my memory with a few avalanche books and articles.

As I prepare for the season, I always make sure I have and remember how to use the basic gear I take into the backcountry.

I am not a gear-head by any standard. But when it comes to rescue gear, I go against my nature and geek out over the type of aluminum of my shovel, the power consumption and number of antennas of my avalanche beacon and the assembly mechanisms of my avalanche probe.

In addition to avalanche rescue gear, a backcountry skier should also carry extra clothing, food, water and first aid. In this column, we?ll go into a little detail about the three avalanche rescue essentials. They are:

? Beacon: There are many good beacons on the market. In general, buying a relatively newer model with three antennas is a good call. Test your beacon for range at the beginning of the season.

? Shovel: I recommend sticking to an aluminum shovel (specifically a 6061 alloy with T6 heat treatment) with a telescopic shaft for effective digging.

? Probe: Make sure the probe you select is durable by ensuring it is made of strong material and that it is easy to assemble with gloves. Tent poles are not good option.

Buyers beware: As with any rescue gear, it is always better to avoid buying used gear.

For obvious reasons it is important to have the essential rescue gear. But knowing how to use it is just as important as having it.

Think about it this way, you decided to buy a race car and now you have it parked in your garage. Unfortunately, having the car doesn?t mean you are a NASCAR driver. You may impress the heck out of your cousin from Alabama and folks in the bar may tell each other that you are a fast driver, but by itself, a race car parked in your garage would not make you a better driver. The same goes for your rescue gear. Owning the right gear is not enough; you need to practice to be able to use it effectively.

Fortunately, there are plenty of opportunities to practice rescue skills in the Juneau area. Early in the season, Eaglecrest Ski Area ski patrol and the Juneau Mountain Rescue group put together a rescue scenario where users can learn and practice the latest and greatest in shoveling and probing techniques. Eaglecrest and JMR also operate one of the nicest beacon training parks in the country. It is free and easy to use.

Beacon training can also begin well before snow hits the ground. Just spread a few hats in your driveway and ask a friend to hide a transmitting beacon under one of the hats.

Equipment companies have long been producing avalanche emergency gear, like the Avalung, that allows a buried person to breathe under the snow. Other products act as an air bag to help a person ride an avalanche to the surface. Helmets specifically designed to protect the user?s head, a vital organ, to improve the chances of survival in avalanche scenarios. Generally speaking, it is a good idea to carry the Avalung, air bag and helmet on tour.

However, sometimes the risk of using protective gear can outweigh the benefits. I have seen folks happily settling into a false sense of security when wearing an Avalung or an airbag. They take bigger risks and, hence, might get caught in an avalanche.

Sometimes it is better to adventure with a basic beacon, shovel and probe and use travel rituals to help navigate out of avalanche debris. For example, when in a group I travel one person at a time in avalanche terrain, I keep my body hydrated and avoid a low glucose level and I listen to my gut feeling only when it tells me I shouldn?t ski a slope.

The state of your rescue gear and the ability to use it reflects your attitude toward others. Go and play in the mountains, but be willing and be in a position to help others -- just as you would like them to help you -- when things go wrong. To do so, you need to have the proper gear and be trained to use it effectively under the worst conditions.