The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. HIGHS AROUND 45. SOUTHEAST WIND
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS IN THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...DECREASING CLOUDS. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
EVENING. LOWS 24 TO 30. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 10 MPH LATE.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. HIGHS AROUND 31. LIGHT WINDS.

The current temperature at 5am is the warmest temperature we have seen in the region since November 1st.

The temps are expected to rise by another few degrees this am.

We are expecting to see at least 1\" of rain throughout the day today.

Avalanche Danger is CONSIDERABLE at this time.

Natural avalanches possible, potentially destructive avalanches may come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches probable in places.

We have seen 600mm (24\") of precipitation in the last 35 days. 14\" of that has been in the last 14 days. In high elevation places back in the icefield imagine they may have seen over 250\" of snow... WOW... Big month in SE ALASKA!

The snowpack has seen quite a bit of warming and rain in the last few days. At Eaglecrest summit elevations yesterday we observed that the rain has percolated to full depth in the snowpack. This is a good thing as it allows for drainage of todays rains through the snowpack with not too much additional stress.

Most of the snowpack has settled a great deal in place. Densities are much higher than a week ago.

Most of the snowpack is solid and in place. Todays rains will continue to add stress to the snowpack in steep open areas. Areas with few or no anchors will be more prone to avalanche activity. Convex breakovers will continue to add stress to the snowpack as we continue to see advanced settlement, creep, and glide rates.

Many of the lower elevation spots hanging on steep rock have shed the snowpack in place as the rains have eaten at the ground bond.

With todays warm temperatures this will be a concern at higher elevations.

Yesterdays snowpit data showed 177cm in our data site. Upon conducting tests you could see the entire snowpack was isothemral. When we isolated a column for compression tests the columns continued to fail after isolation upon cutting the back. When we isolated a section for an extended column test and went to cut the back on one side a layer at 65cm down fractures in place but did not propagate. Upon cutting the other side of the back of the ECT the entire column failed at 21 cm above the ground as soon as our saw hit that spot. Tests score from 1-30 and these are both 0's for scores... they failed on isolation. Once the 21cm layer failed and we examined the sheer planes you could see the 21cm layer failed above the early season ice crust on a layer that had larger weaker crystals. It was a very uneven plane (Q3). When this column hit the ground the plane at 65cm down became even more obvious. It was a clean plane (Q1).

Much of both of these failures is from the fact that the snowpack is now isothermal. The snow has lost its glue bonding it all together (COLD/ICE).

Rain events are much harder to forecast for especially after the first few days. But with over 1\" of rain today and the warmest temps we have seen in over 5 weeks dangers remain considerable.

Tonight things will start to dry out and cool off. Once this happens the snowpack will become quite solid in place over time. The drainage channels in the snowpack will freeze solid and act like steel gurders that have been driven down into the snow holding it all together. This will not happen immediately but will continue to strengthen over time with below freezing temps.

Wet Snow Avalanche:

Most avalanche professionals make a hard distinction between dry snow and wet snow avalanches because they are such different beasts. They are caused by different processes, they fail and fracture differently, they are triggered differently and they move differently down the slope.

Really, there is a continuum between wet and dry avalanches and professional workers use the words: dry, damp, moist, wet and saturated to describe the continuum.

Wet avalanches cause relatively few avalanche fatalities, consequently, they are studied less and are not as well understood.

Dry Avalanches

Caused by putting too much additional stress on the snowpack. Triggered by the victims or someone in the victim?s party
Usually loading of wind drifted snow or loading of new snow
Fast (80 mph or so) usually with a dust cloud.

Wet Avalanches

Caused by decreasing the strength of the snowpack.
In 90 percent of cases Difficult for people to trigger.
Most accidents are from natural avalanches.
Cuased usually by rain, prolonged melting by sun or very warm temperatures.
Slower (10-40 mph) like concrete and usually without a dust cloud.