The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS 38 TO 42. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH.

TONIGHT...AREAS OF FOG. RAIN LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH.

SUNDAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 41. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH.

Temperatures remain above freezing on most of the mountains locally at this time.

We continue to see moderate precipitation rates. With .48\" of rain at the airport in the last 24 hours and .89\" of rain in the valley in the last 24 hours you can see that spatial variability remains high.

We are seeing rapid settlement and consolidation in the snowpack which over time will help to stabilize the pack.

While temperatures are above freezing and we continue to see rains we are also eating away at the bonds in the snowpack. the rain is adding stress in the form of weight and eroding the bonds by rounding out the crystals and not allowing them to freeze together.

During this warm weather danger levels are CONSIDERABLE.

Natural avalanches possible, potentially destructive avalanches may come near or reach developed areas. Human triggered avalanches probable.

This applies more to steep open faces with fewer anchors. This will be especially true on convex slopes that tend to see glide activity.

Today is the first day with rains to summit elevation on Douglas Island. Although the snowpack has been fairly strong over the last few days, once again... this rain is adding stress and eating at the bonds.

Tonights cooler temperatures will start to bring stability into the snowpack yet tomorrow is to remain warm. By tomorrow night into Monday we expect large precip volumes once again and danger levels may rise.

Remember to always carry your transceiver, probe, and shovel!

Good partners, smart lines, riding from Islands of Safety to Islands of Safety, using anchors, placing spotters, riding one at a time, not highmarking above your partner, letting him dig himself out if stuck instead of placing the stress of 2 riders on the slope... thus doubling your active trigger and your risk... Good practices save lives! Lead by example and lets continue to enjoy the mountains in the winters!!!

Have a great day!

Glide avalanches:

Glide occurs when the entire snowpack slowly slides as a unit on the ground, similar to a glacier. Don't mistake glide for the catastrophic release of a slab avalanche that breaks to the ground. Glide is a slow process, that usually occurs over several days. Glide occurs because melt water lubricates the ground and allows the overlying snowpack to slowly \"glide\" downhill. Usually, they don't ever produce an avalanche but occasionally they release catastrophically as a glide avalanche. So the presence of glide cracks in the snow do not necessarily mean danger. It's often difficult for a person to trigger a glide avalanche but at the same time it's not smart to be mucking around on top of them and especially not smart to camp under them.

We tend to find them in wet climates and when they occur in dry climates they do so in spring when water percolated through the snow or sometimes during mid winter thaws.

When do they come down? Like an icefall, they come down randomly in time--when they're good and ready--not before. You would think that they would come down during the heat of the day or when melt water running along the ground reaches its maximum. But oddly enough, they tend to release just as often with the arrival of cold temperatures following melting as during melting itself. It's hard to play a trend with glide avalanches. They come down when they're good and ready and it's impossible to tell when that is. Just don't spend much time underneath them.

Our earth underneath the snowpack remains unfrozen this year which adds to the glide stress by not freezing the ground bond in place.

Check out this link for a quick video clip of Glide Avalanches
http://www.fsavalanche.org/Encyclopedia.aspx