Welcome to the 2011-12 Avalanche Forecast Season.

The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SNOW SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 10 INCHES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES. LOWS
23 TO 29. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

THANKSGIVING DAY...SNOW SHOWERS BECOMING SCATTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 28.
SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 20 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.

On the Mount Roberts Weather Station we have received 14mm of precipitation and roughly 11cm of snow in the last 12 hours including the settlement in the overall snowpack. The Eaglecrest UAS site shows roughly the same, with slightly more new snow.

Winds have been blowing 10-20 knots per hour and gusting to the upper 20's during this new snowfall out of the SE.

Temperatures are predicted to warm up slightly today before cooling back down again tomorrow.

With moderate new loading both from new snow and wind in the last 12 hours, as well as slightly rising temperatures with more snow and wind in the forecast, avalanche danger is Moderate at this time.

Natural avalanches unlikely, potentially destructive avalanches unlikely to come near or reach developed areas.

Human triggered avalanches possible.

Be aware there is still not much consolidation in the snowpack. Look for a weak layer deeper down in the snowpack. Yesterdays quick test scores showed it to be weak in areas. This is a layer we have seen avalanche activity on already this seson but now lies dormant in places. Watch to see how this weak layer responds as we continue to place new snow on it over the next few days.

If you see avalanche activity you find of interest... Please feel tree to send in your observations to [email protected]

There is still not much snowcover on the lower urban avalanche paths. The upper paths have many anchors showing as well.

While many areas continue to have good ground anchors and bonding do to an early season snowpack, be aware that areas with limited anchors, smooth terrain like rock or grass, will have a higher avalanche potential.

Also be aware that the more open and smooth the terrain features are in the area you are playing... the more slab continuity there is creating the potential for larger avalanches.

Its always safer to ski around the scrub brush and small trees... hitting little openings here and there... than to go straight out to that big open line you have been spying... Remember... it has greater potential without the presence of ground anchors and when it slides it will have more mass and speed...

Be safe out there... lets have a good season...

Make educated decisions! When in doubt, low angle out. Do Not leave home without your avalanche transceiver, probe and shovel. Do Not ski in the backcountry without a trained partner and LIVE TO PLAY ANOTHER DAY!