Avalanche Advisory Archive Pre-2016
Date Issued: | 2011-03-19 |
---|---|
Danger: | 3 |
Trend: | 2 |
Probability: | 3 |
Size: | 2 |
Problem: | 0 |
Discussion: | The National Weather Service Forecasts- TODAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 43. NORTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 19 TO 25. NORTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 41. NORTH WIND 10 MPH. SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 18 TO 24. NORTHEAST WIND We had a 2 plus week period of dry cold temperatures with winds much of the time from 40-80 mph. Much of the deeper upper mountain snowpack is quite solid in place. We have received 8-9 inches of snow since the 12th. Today we will see the warmest temperatures since February 1st. This places serious additional stress on the snowpack. We have had light to moderate winds. Some windloading is present but quite minimal. Spatial variability remains high. The old snow surface has multiple structures currently and the new snow bonding will vary from location to location. Look to see snow cleaning itself off of rocks and trees as well as surface sluffing in steep open areas. We expect to see some small to moderate mid-day to late afternoon avalanche activity. The possibility exists for these avalanches to slide at deeper layers than we have been concerned with in the last few weeks. In long steep open areas this could entrain quite a bit of mass. Small slabs may also be present in isolated locations. Some slab activity was sighted yesterday primarily on N-NW faces. Danger levels are Considerable today do to new snows from the previous few days and diurnal fluctuation with afternoon temps going well above freezing once again in some of our mountain starting zones. This will be the warmest day in 7 weeks. This melt freeze process we have seen the last few days and nights begins to build strength in the snowpack. But it is important to recognize the snowpack becomes weak during the above freezing, or warmest, part of the day. Use extreme caution as we get to the later, warmer part of today. Perhaps it is a good day to avoid places such as the Flume and Perseverance Trail. ENJOY A BEAUTIFUL DAY! |