The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. FLURRIES IN THE MORNING. LOCALLY VERY
WINDY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. TEMPERATURES STEADY IN THE UPPER
TEENS. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH...EXCEPT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
WIND GUSTS AROUND 55 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS.

TONIGHT...DECREASING CLOUDS. LOCALLY WINDY. LOWS 6 TO 16.
NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR INTERIOR
PASSES.

WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING SUNNY.
BREEZY. HIGHS 17 TO 23. EAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR INTERIOR PASSES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOCALLY BREEZY. LOWS 6 TO 16.
SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. WIND CHILL TO 20 BELOW.

We have received over 10\" of light new snow in the last 48 hours at tram summit elevations.

Temperatures have fallen by over 15C in the last 36 hours. And much more if you consider wind chill. This places stress on the snowpack by drawing out moisture and exchange of heat transfer.

In the last 20 hours we have received over 6\" of wind transported snows at our Tram Summit Weather Site. This shows extreme windloading.

Winds are predicted to remain high today. The wind direction also directly favors wind slab development in our urban starting zones.

Yesterday during the beginning of the wind storm there was enough wind transport to start natural avalanches in many areas along Thane Road such as Snowslide Creek and Cross Bay.

Although some of the mass has now been reduced in those areas they can reload do to wind transport in a short period of time.

Also in areas that have not seen any silde activity the danger is still present and growing.

Yesterday the slabs started out as 8-10\" of low density soft slab. As this wind event continues the slab depth can grow do to wind transport of new snows into the starting zones. Also slab densities will build as long as this wind event continues.

A greater concern comes in when we consider what this new wind slab is resting on.

Ths storm cycle started on February 8th. Temperatures rose by more than 8 degrees during the first part of the storm. This created an upside down snowpack with low density snow under heavier, harder snows on the surface. This creates a weak layer.

Since the beginning of the cycle we have received 150mm of precipitation which rests in over 80cm of new snows(over 2 1/2')after settlement.

There was quite a bit of natural activity in the first part of the storm removing some of the depth in certain starting zones. But in areas where there was no activity there is now a weak layer present over 2 1/2' deep without even considering the windloading in areas.

So if we see the avalanche come in the top storm layers of 10+' and windloading they will be fast avalanches creating a lot of additional stress on the snowpack under them.

This has the possibility of then tearing down to the deeper weak layers in place. Recognize that although those deeper layers have had some time to settle and bond the weakness is still present.

Should we see avalanche activity down to this deeper weak layer, slide sizes could be quite large.

Recognize the factors leading to avalanche are present and danger continues to rise due to windloading.

AVALANCHE DANGER IS HIGH AT THIS TIME>

Natural avalanches are likely and human triggered avalanches are very likely.

Please limit your danger by limiting exposure to avalanche terrain.

Avoid trails such as the FLUME and Perseverance Trail.

Avoid walking and jogging along Thane Road.

Please limit your time spent in the urban avalanche paths. Go to a friends, go out to eat, take in a movie, have your kids play at a friends house instead of at home if your house is in an avalanche zone. These are good practices to remember for high and extreme danger days.