The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE MORNING WITH RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 41. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 35. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 1200 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 40.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO
15 MPH.

The Mount Roberts Tram Weather Station recorded 2.3\" of precipitation in the last 48 hours.

We have seen over 4\" of precipitation in the last 6 days.

Quite a bit of this precipitation has been in the form of rain. Even at tram elevations what could have been over a meter of snow ended up only delivering 44cm and after settlement over the 6 days with the warm temps and rain that only left a total of just over 30cm of total snow depth.

Every few feet of elevation right now is making a large difference in snow depth. Yesterday where weather stations were only snowing 6\" of new snow we were able to find over 3 times that much just a few hundred feet higher.

Every elevation and aspect has slightly different layering and weak layer placement at this time do to temp differences, winds, and amount of rain/snow received.

Yesterday morning we went through a rather wide spread natural avalanche release cycle. This can be good in removing weak layers and yet shows us that the weak layers are widespread throughout the region. Although we had many slides, many slopes have still not slid and have the same possible weakness present.

Most of yesterdays avalanches appeared to be running on the innerface between two storm cycles. Temperatures dropped night before last and we placed dry snow on top of the rain wetted surface in place. The loading rates were VERY high. As we continued to load the dry snow on a greasy weak layer, temperatures were warming. So we placed a block of snow on top of a weak layer of champaign glasses that were resting on a greasy slurpee. As this rapid loading continued it was only a matter of time before we started to see slope failure.

Avalanches were seen in the White Path, The Berhands Path, Thane Road, and Chop Gulley above the Flume Trail. Natural releases were also sighted at Eaglecrest, Mt Troy, Showboat Ridge, Mt Ben Steward. Natural activity was widespread.

We were not able to view starting zones in the urban avalanche zones therefore it is difficult to say if we have cleaned out all the area of weakness or only part of the slope avalanched.

Also there are weak layers deeper in the snowpack that are still questionable. So even if we cleaned out the upper weak layers we could still see avalanche activity in the form of secondary slides from the lower layers in place.

Temps are cooling a bit over the next 24 hours. Precipitation rates have slowed greatly.

This should give the snowpack time to settle and bond while adjusting to the new weight placed on it in the last 7 days.

Temperatures and Danger levels remain HIGH today but should start falling lower in the next few days.

Time is our friend. Be patient and give the snow that extra day to bond before venturing out into the backcountry.

This is a good time to remind ourselves of protocols during times of HIGH avalanche danger.

Avoid trails such as the Flume and Perseverance Trail.

Limit your travels down Thane Road and when doing so notify someone you are on the way, then check in with them once your cleared.

Do not park along Thane road to walk the beaches.

Do not walk or jog along Thane Road.

Limit your time spent in the Urban Avalanche Zones from the Berhands Subdivision to the White Subdivision. Go out to dinner, see a movie, perhaps even spend an evening at a friends house. Now is a good time to avoid being in the area of danger.

Backcountry Travel is Not Recommended.

Remember, Avalanche Transceiver, Probe, Partner, Shovel are the basic tools to avalanche rescue. You should not be in Avalanche Terrain without them.

Wet Snow Avalanche:

Most avalanche professionals make a hard distinction between dry snow and wet snow avalanches because they are such different beasts. They are caused by different processes, they fail and fracture differently, they are triggered differently and they move differently down the slope. Really, there is a continuum between wet and dry avalanches and professional workers use the words: dry, damp, moist, wet and saturated to describe the continuum.

Wet avalanches cause relatively few avalanche fatalities, consequently, they are studied less and are not as well understood.

Dry Avalanches- What causes them?

Caused by putting too much additional stress on the snowpack.

How do they involve people?

Triggered by the victims or someone in the victim?s party in 90 percent of cases.

What are the contributing weather factors?

Usually loading of wind drifted snow or loading of new snow.

How do they flow?

Fast (80 mph or so) usually with a dust cloud.

Wet Avalanches- What causes them?

Caused by decreasing the strength of the snowpack.

How do they involve people?

Most accidents are from natural avalanches. They are difficult for people to trigger.

What are the contributing weather factors?

Usually by rain, prolonged melting by sun or very warm temperatures.

Dow do they flow?

Slower (10-40 mph) like concrete and usually without a dust cloud.