The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY WINDY. HIGHS 20 TO 26. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 30 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND SOUTH DOUGLAS.

TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY WINDY. LOWS 14 TO 24. EAST WIND TO 30 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.

THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY WINDY. HIGHS 23 TO 29.
SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS TO 45 MPH OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY WINDY. LOWS 18 TO 24.
SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS TO 40 MPH OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES.

With the warm weather from 2 weeks ago, the rain and heavy dense snow, the lower snowpack has settled and bonded quite a bit.

There are still multiple weak layers lower in the snowpack but the heavy dense snow above them appears to be supportive at this time. Be cautious as new loads are placed on these already weak layers by new snow or even by additional wind loading.

Look to see continued areas of wind loading as the snow in place is affected by winds of 10+ MPH throughout most of the next few days.

Last Thursday natural avalanche releases were sighted on multiple aspects due to wind loading. Be aware there are pockets of instability.

With very little snow on Mt Juneau in the urban starting zones avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Yet some of the gullies are starting to see fair snow accumulation due to crossloading from the winds.

Please be aware that fieldwork continues to show multiple weak layers in the snowpack and natural avalanches have been sighted recently.

Remember- Long periods of cold temperatures build weaker snow, which isn?t a problem until the next significant snowfall.

Caution- When temperatures stay well below freezing for long periods of time and high and low temperatures never rise above 15?F (-10?C) day and night, weak layers may develop on the surface or near the ground in a shallow snowpack; this can create a layer that fails with the next load of new snow.

Please remember this is not a Backcountry Forecast-
Backcountry danger levels could be considerably higher.

We have talked about the avalanche forecast quite a bit here in the last week. Now it?s time to pull together all of the information that you?ve analyzed (and hopefully tracked on the Avalanche Weather Forecast Data Sheet).

?Check the findings from your pre-forecast preparations. Do they indicate that the area is prone to avalanches? Has the season?s weather set the stage for their formation?

?Review your weather data for the last 24 hours. Is the weather increasing, decreasing, or not changing avalanche potential?

?Analyze your 24-hour forecasts and determine their impact on avalanche potential

?Look at the combined data and identify the trend. Does the potential for avalanche formation appear to be increasing, decreasing, or remaining the same based on weather conditions?

It?s much easier to forecast the trend if you know what the avalanche potential was prior to this point in time. If not, be conservative and assume that it?s increasing unless most indicators imply otherwise.

Finally, be on the lookout for high-risk situations that make an area particularly prone to avalanches.

?Heavy, dense snowfall of 6 inches (15 cm) or more produces avalanches, especially on steeper terrain with slopes greater than 40 degrees

?12 inches (30 cm) of new snow produce sluffing on steeper terrain at a minimum

?12 inches (30 cm) or more of new snow, especially with higher densities, may overload an already weak snowpack and produce deeper slab releases

?New slabs created with 6 inches (15 cm) or more of new snow and winds from a consistent direction for 6 hours or more averaging 20 to 60 mph (~17 to 52 kts or 10 to 30 m/s) pose high risks

?Rain on snow almost always produces avalanching, with heavier rain producing larger avalanches

?Storms beginning with cold temperatures and low density snow and ending with warm temperatures and higher-density snow often initiate direct action avalanches

?Rapidly warming temperatures during the day increase snowpack settlement rates and can cause avalanches without any new snow loading

?Warm surface temperatures (at or above freezing) combined with intense solar radiation produce wet snowpack conditions.

?Water percolates deeper into the snowpack if continuous above-freezing temperatures last for more than 24 hours; the longer the situation continues, the deeper the avalanches may be (even reaching the ground)

?One day of clear, cold, calm weather followed by a significant snowfall can bury a layer of surface hoar, posing risks to the future stability of the pack

?Longer spells of dry, relatively cold weather followed by a significant snowfall often will bury near-surface faceted snow or depth hoar and may pose a risk if more loading occurs