The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY BREEZY. HIGHS 25 TO 33. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. HIGHER GUSTS IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 12 TO 20. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO
15 MPH.

FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY BREEZY. HIGHS AROUND 24.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. HIGHER WINDS AND GUSTS OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES.

FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOCALLY BREEZY. LOWS 12 TO 18.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. HIGHER WINDS AND GUSTS OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES.

With the warm weather from 10 days ago, the rain and heavy dense snow, the lower snowpack has settled and bonded quite a bit.

There are still multiple weak layers lower in the snowpack but the heavy dense snow above them appears to be supportive at this time. Be cautious as new loads are placed on these already weak layers by new snow or even by additional wind loading.

We had several inches of new snow deposited Saturday and Monday. This has placed some additional weakness in the snowpack in places with wind deposits.

Look to see continued areas of wind loading as the snow in place is affected by winds of 10+ MPH throughout most of the next few days. We are seeing a reduction in the loose snow available for transport as these winds continue.

With very little snow on Mt Juneau in the urban starting zones avalanche danger is LOW at this time. Yet some of the gullies are starting to see fair snow accumulation due to crossloading from the winds.

Please remember this is not a backcountry forecast.

Please be aware that fieldwork continues to show multiple weak layers in the snowpack.

Backcountry danger levels could be considerably higher.

Avalanche forecasting begins with a good understanding of past weather, from the very beginning of the ?winter? season when the first snow stays put in the mountains.

If you?re in a formal avalanche forecasting situation and will be forecasting for, say, a highway department, ski area, or helicopter skiing operation, ideally you?ll want the full complement of daily historical weather data from the start of the winter season. This includes:

?Precipitation (daily snowfall and its water content or SWE)
?Maximum and minimum temperatures at forecast-area elevations
?Winds near ridge-top level or at all forecast-area elevations
?Average cloud cover each day over the forecast area
You can get daily weather observations from ski areas, transportation agencies, and automated weather sites. Some historical information can be obtained from climate station records, satellite data, and SNOTEL sites. (SNOTEL is an extensive, automated system for collecting snowpack and related climatic data in the Western United States and Alaska run by the U.S. Natural Resources Conservation Service.)

Display the data in a graphical format so you can roughly reconstruct snowpack depths and structure.

If detailed historical data are not available, try to find out about the region?s general weather. Has it been wetter or drier than climatic norms? Warmer or colder? Warmer and wetter conditions can create deep mountain snowpack that may be strong and consolidated. Colder and drier than normal-early season weather tends to produce shallow and perhaps weaker snowpack.

Try to get snowpack observations or snow pit profiles from someone trained to perform snowpack assessments. The data can help you figure out:

?If the current snowpack is stable or unstable. If it?s unstable, the potential for avalanches may already be high; if it?s stable, the potential will be low to start with.
?If the snow surface is hard and crusty or soft and powdery, if it?s very rough looking or smooth and planar; and if it?s relatively warm or cold. New snow bonds well to rough, soft, or warm snow surfaces but not to smooth, hard, or cold snow surfaces.