Avalanche Advisory Archive 2016 – 2018

Date Issued:2017-03-18 09:14:25
Danger:3
Primary Trend:1
Primary Probability:3
Primary Likelihood:3
Primary Size:2
Primary Description:

With 52cm of super light snow and then some winds throughout the region and warming towards the end of the storm... this large volume of loose dry snow has a bit of a heavier layer on top stressing the storm slab overall.

Be aware that danger for human triggered avalanches remains in areas. Steep convex slopes remain suspect. Limit your danger by limiting your exposure on extreme terrain... Play it safe

Remember the weakness will increase on south to SW facing slopes if the sun remains on them throughout the day.

Avoid the big SW aspects later in the day in areas with consequence.

Secondary Trend:1
Secondary Probability:2
Secondary Likelihood:3
Secondary Size:2
Secondary Description:

With 52cm of super light snow and then some winds throughout the region and warming towards the end of the storm... this large volume of loose dry snow has a bit of a heavier layer on top stressing the storm slab overall.

Be aware that danger for human triggered avalanches remains in isolated areas. Steep convex unsupported slopes remain suspect. Limit your danger by limiting your exposure on extreme terrain... Play it safe and yet have an amazing day out there.

Remember the weakness will increase on south to SW facing slopes if the sun remains on them throughout the day.

Avoid the big SW aspects later in the day in areas with consequence.

Discussion:

The National Weather Service Forecasts-

Today- Mostly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Isolated rain showers in the afternoon. Highs 32 to 38. Variable wind 10 mph.

Tonight- Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers late. Lows around 21. Light winds.

Sunday- Numerous snow showers. Numerous rain showers in the afternoon. Snow accumulation to 2 inches. Highs around 35. South wind 10 to 15 mph.

Temperatures are cool this morning around the region. The Tram is at 21f and Eaglecrest is showing 16 at the base and 15f on summit.

Winds have died down this morning around the region. Eaglecrest is showing 6-8mph N winds and the Tram is showing 9-10mph winds.

With little to no wind today Natural Avalanches are not likely and yet with a big storm slab on several weak layers and windloading earlier in the week danger remains for human triggered avalanches so the danger rating for today is Considerable.

If we see much continued sun and warming through the day there is a possibility of natural avalanches in the form of wet loose or soft slabs triggered from the loose avalanche starting.

Be aware that sunny aspects will become more trigger sensative as the day progress' if the sun stays on the slopes.

Avoid SW facing slopes in the mid to later part of the day in avalanche prone areas.

Tip:

How to read avalanche terrain. By Bruce Tremper.

There?s no such thing as complete safety when you?re in the mountains, so smart travel in dangerous terrain is all about minimizing risk; read the terrain carefully, choose your route critically, and you?re more likely to make it home in time for dinner. On every trip, you?ll reach what Tremper calls ?critical decision spots,? places where you?re presented with multiple options and need to choose carefully?should you skin straight up the gully because it?s easier going, or stay on the ridge?
Before you opt for the gully, think about the consequences: it?s what?s called a ?terrain trap,? meaning that even a small avalanche can be catastrophic there. If you stay on the ridge, an avalanche is more likely to spread out underneath you, giving you a better chance of avoiding getting caught altogether. Whenever you?re moving, keep an eye out for terrain traps and other features like cliffs or trees that, if you got caught, could turn a small avalanche into a serious disaster.
It?s also vital to know the steepness of the slope you?re thinking about hitting, as well as its direction, or aspect. Almost all avalanches happen on slopes between roughly 30 and 45 degrees, which also happens to be prime ski terrain; steeper slopes tend to regulate themselves more efficiently, while shallower pitches generally don?t have the requisite energy for a major slide to occur. Before you head out, it?s a great idea to pick up an inclinometer, which is cheap, small, and will help you easily tell how steep a slope is before you get on it.
Aspect?s another key piece in the avalanche puzzle. From early to midwinter, north- through east-facing slopes tend to be the most dangerous, while southern and westerly pitches become susceptible to wet slides in the spring, when temperatures rise and they get more direct sunlight. Most avalanche forecasts feature what?s called a ?danger rose,? a modified compass that displays aspect, elevation, and corresponding danger ratings, letting you quickly see which slopes are best to avoid and which offer the safest bets for the day.
So read your local avy forecast every morning with your coffee, take a certified avalanche class before you start spending time in dangerous terrain, and always focus on travelling safely and minimizing risk; there aren?t any guarantees out there, but there?s a lot you can do to make it home in one piece.

Forecaster:Tom Mattice