Avalanche Advisory Archive 2016 – 2018

Date Issued:2017-03-10 06:51:39
Danger:2
Primary Trend:1
Primary Probability:3
Primary Likelihood:2
Primary Size:2
Primary Description:

With underlying weak layers and days after days of windloading there are a lot of weak windslabs out there in isolated locations.

Secondary Trend:1
Secondary Probability:8
Secondary Likelihood:2
Secondary Size:1
Secondary Description:

With continued winds we see continued cornice formation. growth has slowed greatly over the last several days yet remember cornice predictability is difficult. Always give them as much room as possible.

Discussion:

The National Weather Service Forecasts-

Today- Mostly clear. Locally windy. Highs around 22. Northeast wind 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Near downtown juneau and douglas, northeast wind 30 mph. Wind gusts up to 60 mph decreasing to 40 mph in the morning.

Tonight- Partly cloudy. Lows 10 to 16. Northeast wind 15 to 25 mph. Wind gusts to around 55 mph near downtown juneau and douglas.

Saturday- Sunny. Highs around 25. Northeast wind 15 to 25 mph. Wind gusts to around 55 mph near downtown juneau and douglas

Winds continue to blow around the region. This morning Eaglecrest is showing 16-18 while the tram is a bit higher at 19-26 our of the North. Typically with north winds the true wind is higher than the gauge. You can assume its blowing much stronger near ridgeline and summit.

Temps are 6f at Eaglecrest this morning and 7f at the tram.

It looks like we have some snow coming into next week we will want to keep an eye on danger levels.

Currently with no new snow over the last several days and high winds for several days now avalanche danger remains MODERATE. Natural avalanches are not likely and yet human triggered avalanches may remain possible in isolated windloaded locations.

Windslabs were widespread early in the storm... since that time large areas of snow have been stripped away... or wind hardened in place as slabs were formed. These slabs are getting quite hard and stiff.

Although the weak spots getting smaller and harder to trigger the consequence is going up. Its best to avoid extreme exposure.

Tip:

You will want to play close attention to what the base layer is Saturday as we go into Sunday and start a new storm...

What will this new snow be coming to rest on... Start to build your avalanche mindset now.

Did the cold bring facets in the trees? on north facing shaded slopes?? or did the winds strip it clean flat and hard... with no facets in open areas...

What temp will this new snow start at? Cold and then warming bigtime through the storm creating an upside down slab that didn't bond to the old snow surface? or warm to begin with perhaps better bonding and less density change? It all makes a difference. Be thinking with your avi savy plan...

Forecaster:Tom Mattice