Avalanche Advisory Archive 2016 – 2018

Date Issued:2017-03-01 07:04:09
Danger:2
Primary Trend:3
Primary Probability:3
Primary Likelihood:2
Primary Size:1
Primary Description:

We received 4-6\" on our upper elevations over the last 24 hourd during periods of winds.

The snow was very cold and of low density that is easily transported.

Expect to see windslabs in places.

As the storm continues watch for this development to increase and become more sensative as the load increases.

Be aware that these shallow slabs are resting on a variety of bed surfaces and spatial variability is high. With not that much snow in the forecast natural avalanche activity should remain at a minimum yet human triggered avalanches remain possible in isolated locations and danger will increase over time with additional accumulations.

Secondary Trend:3
Secondary Probability:1
Secondary Likelihood:2
Secondary Size:1
Secondary Description:

Watch for small loose dry avalanches as the storm continues. It is of very low denstiy. I expect to see the snow cleaning off of the cliffs and trees over time as the winds blow and snow accumulates. This low density snow often creates small loose snow slides as bonding tends to be poor.

Discussion:

The Natural Weather Service Forecasts-

Today- Widespread snow showers. Snow accumulation 3 to 6 inches. Highs around 30. East wind 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight- Widespread snow showers. Snow accumulation 2 to 5 inches. Lows 19 to 25. East wind 10 to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 15 to 25 mph late.

Thursday- Areas of blowing snow in the morning. Snow. Snow accumulation 4 to 10 inches. Highs around 28. Northeast wind 15 to 25 mph shifting to the southeast 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Good Morning and Welcome Snow! Avalanche Danger is up a little today and on the rise as the storm snow continues to accumulate.

Temps this a.m. at Eaglecrest are 26f at the base, 22f mid mountain and 20f on summit. Mt Roberts is currently 23f.

We received a little bit of blower cold snow last night in the hills with Eaglecrest showing 5-6\" of very low density snow and the tram with slightly less at around 4\" of new snow, also very light in density.

Winds are moderate showing 17to 20mph at Eaglecrest. The tram is much calmer currently at 4-6. The forecast for today also calls for continued 10-20mph winds.

This combination of winds and cold new snow will lead to a great deal of wind transport and wind slab development over time increasing avalanche danger.

The forecast calls for another 6\" of snow in the next 24 hours. This too will increase avalanche danger. Temperatures are to remain cool and yet with the winds and new snow combined danger levels will continue to increase.

The new snow from the last 24 hours is coming to rest on a varied bed surface. Its a mixed bag out there. This cold snow will not bond well to the old snow surface in most places... and some of the current snowpack had shallow windslabs, near surface facets, sun exposed south facing slopes that crusted over the last few days and more...

I think you may find things quite trigger sensitive today in areas.

With this low density snow we may also see small dry loose snow avalanches off of the super steep rocky faces as this snow builds up and relieves itself over time with todays forecast accumulations..

The small snow volumes thus far will help in maintaining stability but should we start to see large snow volumes remember danger will continue to rise.

Avalanche danger is probably more MODERATE today and yet if we get more snow and the continued winds danger levels may climb to Considerable. Natural avalanches are unlikely and yet human triggered avalanches remain possible especially in wind loaded areas.

Tip:

Be careful out there. Dust on Crust... It will improve over time as the snow bonds to the old snow surface and settles. In the meanwhile be aware you may find slide for life conditions in places. Especially south faces that sun crusted over the last two weeks.

Forecaster:Tom Mattice