Avalanche Advisory Archive 2016 – 2018

Date Issued:2017-02-09 07:00:06
Primary Trend:2
Primary Probability:3
Primary Likelihood:1
Primary Size:1
Primary Description:

With 11 days of no snow and several days of calmer conditions now things are stable for the more part. The concern still remains in the older windslabs that were created in isolated locations.

Be safe out there and have a great day.

Secondary Trend:3
Secondary Probability:2
Secondary Likelihood:1
Secondary Size:1
Secondary Description:

Not today... but as we go from Friday night into Saturday be looking as this new snow comes in. If we get a fair amount of new snow before the rains look for storm slab activity through the weekends big storm event.


The National Weather Service Forecasts-

Today- Mostly cloudy with flurries in the morning...the partly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs 26 to 31. Light winds becoming north 10 mph late in the morning.

Tonight- Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of snow in the evening, then scattered snow showers late. Lows 22 to 27. East wind 10 mph.

Friday- Widespread snow showers. Snow accumulation 2 to 4 inches. Highs around 29. Southeast wind 10 mph.

We have seen no real precipitation over the last 11 days. This has given the snowpack time to settle and bond. The snowpack is very strong for the most part.

We have seen a great deal of wind. This has created windslabs in places. These remain the greatest concern. They are not widespread but if you look far and wide you could find weak windslabs in isolated places.

The temperatures remain quite cool around the region. This morning the Mt Roberts Tram is showing 18f again and Eaglecrest is cooler with 18f at the base, 16f mid mountain and 16f on summit.

Winds are calm this morning. Wind transport will be at a minimum today.

With more cold temps and no precipitation in the forecast the avalanche danger is LOW this morning. Both natural and human triggered avalanches are not likely.

Be aware of those windslabs in isolated locations.

Have a great day and pray for some cold temps to stick with us through this weekends snow that is in the forecast.

Currently the forecast calls for increased precipitation tomorrow into the weekend. This will come in during a pretty good warming trend with increasing freezing levels. I am sure we will all be excited to get out and ski Saturday morning before the freezing levels climb too much.

Please remember this will be the perfect storm so to speak for creating avalanche conditions. An old bed surface that is age and wind hardened. New snow doesn't tend to bond well... Look to see facets in places as well... this will add to the poor bonds. Then start with cold snow and increase the temp throughout the storm... upside down storm... once again builds slide conditions... The winds will pick up and be quite strong during the event... another red flag... and if that isn't enough the temps will come up through the point of freezing while it rains as much as 3 inches from Friday night late to Sunday... That is a bunch of red flags.

I assume we will see a widespread natural avalanche cycle during the storm if we get enough new snow at the start to build slabs. yet if we only get a little snow and it quickly turns to rain we will have much less danger... and much poorer skiing... Pray for cold air... and be thinking safety this weekend.


Here is link to a presentation I enjoyed this last fall.

10 Common Mistakes in Avalanche Safety ? ISSW 2016


Forecaster:Tom Mattice