Avalanche Advisory Archive 2016 – 2018

Date Issued:2017-01-13 07:19:22
Danger:2
Primary Trend:3
Primary Probability:3
Primary Likelihood:3
Primary Size:1
Primary Description:

There is not much storm slab currently but this will build to as much as 1'deep by tomorrow am. Look to see how this new snow is bonding to the old snow surface. This will tell you if danger is building in the region you choose to recreate. Keep an eye on this storm layer and how it bonds. It may become the next layer of concern as it builds and connects spatially around the region.

Secondary Trend:3
Secondary Probability:2
Secondary Likelihood:2
Secondary Size:1
Secondary Description:

There is not much storm slab currently but this will build to as much as 1'deep by tomorrow am. Look to see how this new snow is bonding to the old snow surface. This will tell you if danger is building in the region you choose to recreate. Keep an eye on this storm layer and how it bonds. It may become the next layer of concern as it builds and connects spatially around the region.

Discussion:

The National Weather Service Forecasts-

Today- Windy...rain. Snow level 600 feet increasing to 1000 feet in the afternoon. Highs around 39. Southeast wind 10 to 25 mph. Gusts to around 40 mph.

Tonight- Windy...rain. Lows 33 to 39. East wind 15 to 25 mph. Gusts to around 40 mph.

Saturday- Rain in the morning...then rain showers in the afternoon. Highs around 37. Southeast wind 10 to 20 mph.

Temperatures continue to warm up around the region. The Mt Roberts Tram has climbed from yesterday mornings 25f to 31f today. Eaglecrest is much the same showing 29f today after warming up from yesterdays 23f.

We have not received much precipitation yet for this storm but its coming. In the last 24 hours we have picked up 3cm at Mt Roberts of 27% (very wet dense) snow. At Eaglecrest we have only seen about 2cm of even denser snow (30%). This is not much in the way of new snow fall to add stress to our starting zones or the current weak layers in place.

Winds are blowing again building windslabs again that will be todays concern. Currently Eaglecrest is sshowing 30-40mph winds gusting higher. Mt Roberts is slightly calmer at 15-20. These are both considerable loading winds to keep in mind as this precip picks up.

The forecast for the next 24 hours calls for as much as another 4f degrees of warming. This is important to keep in mind as we see it accompanied by as much as 9\" of snow and 1.35\" of precipitation... That's Considerable snowfall and high precipitation volumes. Freezing levels will rise but our mountain starting zones should continue to see this in the form of snow. Just a lot of wet dense snow.

Depending on how much warming we get before, during, and after the precipitation will determine our danger levels.

Avalanche danger is MODERATE at this time. Both natural and human triggered avalanches are not likely at this time... yet as this storm continues both natural and human triggered avalanches will become likely. Danger is growing rapidly yet sizes should remain small enough not to effect the urban environment.

This is a strong storm with warming, wind, and high precip volumes. Use a little extra caution out there over the next 24-48 hours please.

Tip:

Tomorrow is the annual Multi-Agency Avalanche Rescue Drill. The Dan Moeller Trail and Bowl will be quite busy as we shuttle people up and down for the drill.

Special thanks to the Forest Service for allowing us to hold this training exercise.

We are excited to be working with the Juneau Snowmobile Club, SEADOGS, Juneau Mountain Rescue, Capital City Fire Rescue and Juneau Ski Patrol. We thank you for your service and your commitment to safety for our friends and families in the Juneau Borough.

Here is a great link to a rescue story that we can all learn from.

https://vimeo.com/182894339

Forecaster:Tom Mattice