Today's Discussion

With several days in a row of increased temperatures and increased winds avalanche danger remains MODERATE today.  Natural avalanches are possible primarily for smaller events in the urban paths and yet there are lingering weak layers in the region at upper elevations where you may see larger slides.

With solar warming and the forecast calling for another one of the warmest days in some time...  avalanche danger is MODERATE for small to mid sized wet loose and wet slab avalanches.  The sun and the heat of the day will be the driving factors.  Look to see activity potentially increase in the middle to later part of the day primarily on South and Southwest facing slopes.

We still do not expect to see  activity large enough to reach the urban interface and yet if you choose to hike the flume trail today you may see activity come down close to the trail.  Potentially a good day to avoid the flume trail for increased safety.

We received no precipitation the last 2 days but temps did warm a great deal.  The tram saw peak highs of 43f.  Its currently still 35f and has not gone below freezing in 2+ days.  Today will warm rapidly with the sun out.  Eaglecrest also hit 43f at Powder Patch and 40f on summit which is the warmest temp in some time.  We expect to see a quite a bit of warming today again.  Currently its 29f on summit at Eagelcrest and 33f at powder patch.  But both should warm to above freezimg temps rapidly today.  Again with the sun out we should see rapid warming.

Winds today are to remain strong and loading the urban paths increasing avalanche potential.  Currently winds are NNE36-39f at Sheep Mountain.  The tram is at NNE 28-35mph this am.  Eaglecrest is only showing NNE11-14mph winds.  Watch to see slabs form on southerly aspects.  Solar warming will be a concern on these wind slabs as well...

Once again we do not expect widespread activity or very large avalanches...  but we do expect to see avalanches potential increasing through the day with the sun and warming and increasing outflow winds...  Avoid southern aspects in the mid to later part of the day.

Reemember peak winds yesterday hit N83 at Sheep Mountain two days ago and NNE63mph yesterday, NNE55mph at the ttram where its a bit more sheltered and NNE44 at the Eaglecrest summits.  More than enough to drive windloading if the snow stayed on the mountain and didnt simply blow off into the channel.

The National Weather Service Forecasts-

Today- Mostly clear. Highs 43 to 49. East winds around 10 mph.

Tonight- Mostly clear. Lows 32 to 38. East winds around 10 mph.

Saturday- Partly cloudy. Slight chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 40s. East winds around 10 mph.

Saturday Night- Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain in the evening, then chance of rain showers late. Lows in the mid 30s. East winds around 10 mph.

Primary Avalanche Problem

Loose Wet

Description

Currently its near freezing in our mountain starting zones.  It wont take long to warm today.  With little cooling over night and with solar warming and the warmest temps in some time we expect to see small loose wet avalanches on South to West aspects.

These should be small in size and not effect the urban interface.

We may also see wet slabs if we see enough warming and these soft new wind slabs form on southerly warm aspects.

We picked up a bit of new snow around the region over the last week at uppermost elevations.  Today rapid warming will test the bonds in place and we may see storm slabs or wind slabs turn into wet slab avalanches today in the later, warmer part of the day.

Dangers will increase from East to South to Southwest facing slopes throughout the day.  Dangers will peak in late afternoon on Southerly aspects.

Dangers will be increasing during the course of today and then as cooling occurs over the next few days and winds calm dangers should continue to decrease.

Secondary Avalanche Problem

Wind Slab

Description

With strong outflow winds in the urban paths over the last 48 hours, expect to see windloading on our urban faces.  This may be enough to drive natural avalanches and yet sizes should remain small enough not to come down to sea level.

Dangers continue to increase over time as wind are forecat to remain.

With current winds in the 20-30's and peak winds into the 50's+ wind loading will remain a concern today.

Decreasing winds over the next few days with cooler temps should start to limit  activity over time but today we will likely see some small activity with the incredible warming and strong winds.

Please continue to support the Coastal AK Avalanche Center at   http://CoastalAkAvalanche.org

Your observations help all the forecasters in the region better understand the nature of the instabilities...  Are they widespread on all aspects?  or limited in aspect and elevations.  Are they meeting our forecast expectations or should we revisit our forecasts due to increasing activity?  There is so much these observations tell us...  Please help educate your community by sharing what you see in the mountains and remember...  The more we know the safer the snow.

Be safe out there and enjoy a little new snow while dangers are building around the region today.