Today's Discussion

Hopefully todays atmospheric river event and associated thaw brings some resolution to our avalanche problems. Pat is closing Thane at noon so is on the same page. As I kind of laid out yesterday I do think theres a good chance we will see continued activity with todays big rain event. Outcome one is we see activity from our start zones and Behrends slides (hopefully in a non destructive manner) cleans out those pockets and we feel better about lifting the evac. Outcome two is a large destructive slide. Outcome three is the snowpack wets out goes isothermal but remains intact and keeps us in an monitor and assess situation.

Primary Avalanche Problem

Wet Slab

Description

Upper elevation wet slab avalanche hazard will increase today with the AR event. If we see a wet slab avalanche it has the potential to run far and potentially impact homes.

Secondary Avalanche Problem

Persistent Slab

Description

Persistent weak layers in our start zone snowpack may be tested today as we see the first thaw and heavy precip come in midday today and wet out for the first time in this event. This rain event may possibly be the trigger for small slides or a large to very large slide.

Hazard Update:

Hazard will be on the rise this afternoon (Tuesday) as the NWS has issued a Special Weather Statement that may bring 1.5 to 3.5 inches of rain today and into tomorrow, wind gusts potentially reaching 65 mph, and freezing levels rising from 3000 to 5000 feet. Late this evening and into tonight is when hazard will peak as the snowpack in the upper start zones of the Behrends path are saturated and weighted with liquid rain water testing the strength of buried weak layers. DOT & PF is closing Thane road at noon today and reevaluating at 6:00am Wednesday.  For these reasons and the safety of residents in mind the evacuation advisory remains in effect for the Behrends Path only.