... STRONG WIND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ...
TODAY ... MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOCALLY WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 39. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25
MPH. GUSTS TO 45 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT ... MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER. LOWS 19 TO 27 ... EXCEPT AROUND 14 IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 25 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS.

THURSDAY ... PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 37. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

Temps are still showing diurnal swings, but there is a slight warming trend in the cycle. The Tram got up to just about -1c yesterday afternoon before falling back to -3.5c overnight.

Winds remain out of the NE at ridgetop level and are still moving snow around. The Mt Juneau weather station has had about 60cm stripped from it since Thurs.

Main avalanche problem today is wind slabs. A good size wind slab may pop out pockets on the buried facet layer near the Jan Crust, but those will be isolated and not continuous enough to constitute a large problem in the urban paths.

This is not a good afternoon to beach comb beneath Snowslide Creek on Thane Rd. or be spending much time on the Flume/Perseverance trails. Hazard remains high this morning and will not be decreasing in the afternoon significantly.

Also note that while this forecast is a tool that we compile by looking at snow data from all over our local mountain ranges it is targeted at the slide paths that impact CBJ homes, roads, and trails, not general backcountry travel. There is a lot of spatial variability out there right now, and our start zones are not representative of many recreation zones.

Backcountry travelers beware! There were two large slides on Douglas this week: one skier triggered slide on Ben Stewart which occurred after multiple tracks had been put in that zone. The other on Reedy Bullion that seems to have been natural. Both happened later in the day and are believed to have gone on the PWL facet layer just above the thick Jan Crust. This means crown heights of up 8ft in places.

Avalanche Danger for the urban zones is CONSIDERABLE today will remain so even as the winds calm down: Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Be increasingly cautious in or under steeper terrain and in avalanche zones.

MANAGING AVALANCHE TERRAIN (5)

TERRAIN AND GROUP MANAGEMENT

In short, this is what's needed: Avoid critical snowpack and terrain features, reduce exposure and move in a timely manner.

Traveling in avalanche country involves critical decisions both on a macro scale (terrain selection) and micro scale (terrain management: dealing with specific terrain features on a slope / group management: organizing people and structuring the act of traveling).

Terrain is the only known and reliable component in the world of snow and avalanches where an infinite number of variables and their combinations spread confusion - terrain doesn't change, but weather, snowpack, avalanche conditions do.

Or to put it another way: Terrain is the only part of the equation with no uncertainty attached to it.

ON THE MACRO SCALE

Schedule oriented terrain choices (touring day is fixed, objective is flexible): The less stable the snow, the less steep the terrain choices need to be - slope angle reduction is the simplest way of minimizing one's exposure to avalanches. Slopes under 30 degrees rarely produce avalanches in our maritime snowpack (as long as such low angle terrain isn't exposed to steeper terrain from above).

Goal oriented terrain choices (touring day is flexible, objective is fixed): Wait for the snowpack to be more stable in order to ski the big and gnarly lines. For us in AK, this often is a very spur of the moment window, too quick after a storm = high instability, too long after a storm = windslab or wind hammer.

ON THE MICRO SCALE

Based on the avalanche problems you are trying to deal with, consider these aspects of terrain selection: terrain configuration, trigger points, terrain traps, slope angle, location, altitude, aspect to wind, aspect to sun, shape, ground cover.

It is an art form to read and utilize terrain efficiently, balancing safety considerations and the draw of untracked snow with effective timeliness. As a novice to backcountry travel, start with Simple Terrain (think ATES scale), especially when in unfamiliar territory, with limited visibility and/or during unusual conditions.

Once the decision is made by all members of the group that a certain slope is reasonably safe to travel, group management techniques to further increase the safety margin should be considered. These need to be real safety techniques, like skiing all the way to an island of safety, not just things that make you feel better like waiting 20 seconds between skiers while still putting 3 or more people at risk at once.

Even good techniques can be abused when trying to make up for poor terrain choices. When applying such techniques, consider the downside of doing so. For example, spreading out or traveling one at a time costs time and limits communication within the group possibly creating other significant problems.

Taking breaks or regrouping after descending a section should be done in the safest terrain possible. While traveling from one island of safety to another have a clear idea and communication among your group as to where the next safe spot is, and what exits are available if something starts moving on you.

It is good protocol to have a defensive riding style in the backcountry. Hucking a cornice or a boulder is the equivalent of putting these trigger points through the stress test - you'd better be very confident in your correct snow and avalanche assessment that doing so won't release the avalanche!

RULES OF THUMB FOR AVALANCHE TERRAIN SELECTION & MANAGEMENT

? Always go through the process of making a tour plan including the avalanche report. Not having a tour plan is like wearing a blindfold, whereas a tour plan enables one to see.

? Avoid terrain as specified in the avalanche danger report, notably with respect to the \"avalanche problems\".

? Never break the \"no-go zones\" rule while on tour. Instead, reassess as part of your post-tour debrief and make changes for the next day accordingly.

? Make a habit of good travel techniques. Even on low hazard days.

? Good travel techniques never trump poor terrain choices (at best, they may contain the damage).

? Manage uncertainty with an extra dose of caution. Uncertainty can exist because of reasons such as lack of knowledge, skill and experience; lack of information; lack of visibility; the inherent nature of the avalanche problem (persistent slabs, complex snowpack), unfamiliarity of the terrain.

? Take an avalanche course, further your avalanche knowledge ? Avalanche education does save lives!

In the end, ask yourself: How much are you willing to pay for these turns? The only thing worse than getting yourself killed, is being part of poor decision making resulting in the death of your backcountry partners.