... HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS ...

TODAY ... MOSTLY CLOUDY ... LOCALLY VERY WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 40. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND
DOUGLAS ... NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH.

TONIGHT ... PARTLY CLOUDY ... LOCALLY WINDY. LOWS 26 TO 32. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS ... NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

WEDNESDAY ... PARTLY CLOUDY ... LOCALLY WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 37.
NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH NEAR
DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS.

Winds remain out of the NE at ridge top level. Temps have come up just a bit from yesterday morning, with Mt Juneau making it all the way to -3c yesterday afternoon, before coming back down to -5c last night. Despite no new precip, even the Tram snow plot is wind loading with this event; it gained 26cm of snow since 7am yesterday.

This is an indicator of how much we are building wind slabs in the start zones.

Main avalanche problem today is wind slabs. A good size wind slab may pop out pockets on the buried facet layer near the Jan Crust, but those will be isolated and not continuous enough to constitute a large problem in the urban paths.

This is not a good afternoon to beach comb beneath Snowslide Creek on Thane Rd. or be spending much time on the Flume/Perseverance trails. Hazard is high this morning and will not be decreasing in the afternoon significantly.

Also note that while this forecast is a tool that we compile by looking at snow data from all over our local mountain ranges it is targeted at the slide paths that impact CBJ homes, roads, and trails, not general backcountry travel. There is a lot of spatial variability out there right now, and our start zones are not representative of many recreation zones.

Backcountry travelers beware! There were two large slides on Douglas yesterday: one skier triggered slide on Ben Stewart which occurred after multiple tracks had been put in that zone. The other on Reedy Bullion that seems to have been natural. Both happened later in the day and are believed to have gone on the PWL facet layer just above the thick Jan Crust. This means crown heights of up 8ft in places.

Avalanche Danger for the urban zones is CONSIDERABLE today as winds increase: Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Be increasingly cautious in or under steeper terrain and in avalanche zones.

MANAGING AVALANCHE TERRAIN (4)

One of the hardest things to get a good handle on and deal with in avalanche terrain is us. The ones making the decisions, and the ones at risk. There is a reason why most avalanche fatalities are triggered by someone in that person's party.

HUMAN FACTORS

Short and simple, Human Factors are the emotional, psychological, social influences at play when trying to make objective decisions. No one is immune from it; in fact these are essential mechanisms of how humans make sense of every-day life.

In critical decision making, these mechanisms can present lethal traps. While knowledge and skills certainly are important, 90% of avalanche incidents are attributed to the negative influences of Human Factors.

How much are you willing to pay for those sweet turns? In other words, what is your level of acceptable risk when traveling the backcountry? How much risk one is willing to take is a conscious personal/group choice. Often however, it is not a high risk acceptance that gets folks into trouble, it is a skewed risk perception that leads to a non-intended high risk situation. While field observations are objective, interpreting that data, especially basing terrain choices there on, can be rather difficult and is subjectively influenced.

THE ATES SCALE

The Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (a Canadian concept employed by their Avalanche Centers) uses terrain rated based on complexity:

Simple Terrain: exposure to low angle and/or primarily forested terrain and may include tracks and runout zones of infrequent avalanche paths with many options to reduce or eliminate exposure.

Challenging Terrain: exposure to well defined avalanche paths including start zones and significant terrain traps with limited options to reduce exposure.

Complex Terrain: exposure of multiple avalanche paths including start zones and significant terrain traps and/or large expanses of steep open terrain with minimal if any options to reduce exposure.

The No-Go Zone concept (described last time) is a great defender against a host of Human Factors. Think of it this way: during your tour planning phase of your backcountry adventure, you make crucial decisions much more objectively as compared to during the emotionally charged situations when looking at masses of pow, great terrain that others are skiing.

No matter what, once terrain is agreed upon as no-go, it?s off the table for that day- if you felt your terrain selection was too cautious, you can re-discuss it during the tour planning for the next day. However, you can always add terrain to the no-go zones while touring if you feel conditions are worse than anticipated.

TEAM WORK

Team work is another proven tool to fend against the Human Factor. Be picky with whom you travel the backcountry- differing attitudes, objectives, riding skills, fitness level, modes of travel, etc can prohibit positive group dynamic. Get to know yourself and your ski buddies- everyone has their weaknesses and strengths, their own mechanisms to deal with critical decisions.

In the spirit of a Chinese proverb ?In the face of Nature, a person is fragile like a small branch that breaks easily, however a bundle of small branches are hard to break?, a good team acts in support of each other.

Of course a bad team can easily drag you into bad situations. Find people who bring out the best in your decision making process.

Communicate honestly and clearly- listen to others and make yourself heard about your opinion, reasoning, concerns, observations, etc. Take objections and concerns from any group member as a reason to reassess your own opinion.

Discuss on-spot critical decisions from different view points; such as powder fever, field observations, terrain assessment arguing for and against before committing to the slope in question. If no group consensus can be reached, then the most conservative opinion in the group should be followed.

Before committing to avalanche terrain, take a moment for your own silent reflection on this critical decision, go through all the information again. Such a pre-mortem debrief can bring to surface your gut feeling; intuition is a powerful mechanism that should not be neglected. Getting caught in a slide can be a very high consequence event. Gut feelings, intuition and spiritual callings should only be relied upon for no-go decisions, not the other way round.