... HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS ...
TODAY ... SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 38. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS TO 35 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AND INTERIOR PASSES.

TONIGHT ... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOCALLY WINDY. LOWS 22 TO 28 ... EXCEPT AROUND 16 IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. NORTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AND INTERIOR PASSES ... NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 45 MPH LATE.

MONDAY ... SUNNY ... LOCALLY WINDY. HIGHS AROUND 39. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH ... EXCEPT NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS WITH GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

Winds got a little less intense yesterday about 11am but continued to provide plenty of snow transport into the start zones. Temps at the tram have been pretty consistent staying between -3 and -4c since noon yesterday.

This means that we have a wind slab problem that is continuing to grow, over what is likely a thin melt-freeze crust from the warm afternoons on Thurs and Fri.

Danger will increase as the winds continue and particularly as we hit the high winds this afternoon into tomorrow. For now I expect sizes to remain small, but that will change with enough new wind loading.

Good size naturals were reported on Blackerby ridge on WNW aspects yesterday. This is similar, though not the exact same aspect, to our start terrain. One other difference is that I don't believe the Persistent Weak Layer facets above the January Crust is quite as widespread in our start zones.

Remember dry avalanches can run very fast and create damaging powder blasts in front of the moving snow.

Also note that while this forecast is a tool that we compile by looking at snow data from all over our local mountain ranges it is targeted at the slide paths that impact CBJ homes, roads, and trails, not general backcountry travel. There is a lot of spatial variability out there right now, and our start zones are not representative of many recreation zones.

Avalanche Danger for the urban zones is MODERATE this morning - rising to CONSIDERABLE tonight as winds increase: Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Be increasingly cautious in or under steeper terrain and in avalanche zones. Monitor avalanche forecasts.

RUSSIAN ROULETTE

Most people are familiar with the game of Russian Roulette; put one bullet in a six chambered revolver, then spin the chamber and shut it without knowing where the bullet ended up. Afterwards you put the barrel to your head and pull the trigger.

This is what we call a \"low-probability\" but \"high-consequence\" event. Odds are that the chamber is empty. In fact the odds are significantly weighted that way. Of course the consequences if the chamber of the gun is not empty are quite high.

These low-probability but high-consequence events are one of the many things avalanche forecasters struggle with.

Take the Flume and Perseverance Trails: Slides have hit the trails only a few times a year for the last five years or so. Let's err on the high side and call it three times a year for a total of 15. With roughly 120 days a year that avalanche danger exists, that gives our \"safe\" days a total of 600. With 600 \"safe\" days for every 15 \"bad\" days this is obviously a low-probability event.

Of course even a small slide impacting a dog walker from above will have dire consequences. Even a strong powder blast can break and damage trees ... maybe once, but I am no longer as sturdy as a good size tree.

So, how do you keep people informed about risk in such a scenario?

You can warn them about walking on the Flume Trail every time there is any chance an avalanche could hit it. But they get desensitized, like the boy who cried wolf.

You could only warn them when you feel like the danger is really high ... but you miss a lot of days when it is possible a slide will kill someone, and no forecaster wants to be the one that lets that happen.

It's tough.

I live at least part of each winter in a section of the harbor that would be hit by a really large slide out of Behrends. I also work in avalanche terrain at least 150 days a year. When I am not working in avalanche terrain in the winter I am playing in it.

Despite that high tolerance for the risks I feel like on any days where I would not walk my dog, or spend time taking pictures on those trails that I should say so in my forecast.

I know several of the other forecasters feel the same way, and at least one just won't walk that trail in the winter.

When you see us telling you for the 50th time in a season to avoid the Flume/Perseverance zones it is not because we are getting paid to. It is because we live here, and care about the community and are doing the best we can to inform people about those high-consequence, if lower probability events.

BTW ... I would stay off the Flume/Perseverance Trails for a few days starting around noon today ...