From the National Weather Service:

TODAY...NUMEROUS SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS...BECOMING SCATTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 38. EAST WIND
10 MPH.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 28.
EAST WIND 10 MPH.

THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS...THEN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF JUNEAU. HIGHS
AROUND 39. NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH.
Over the last 24 hours we have seen over 1? of water equivalent falling steadily as nearly 1' of snow. Winds were mostly below 20kts, and temperatures remained just a few degrees below freezing at elevation.

Snowfall is forecast to slack off through tomorrow accompanied by warming temperatures and light winds.

Rapid wind loading out of the SE was observed monday on Douglas below ridge tops. Wind loaded areas received heavy snow yesterday, and are adjusting to the new load but will require an artificial trigger or significant warming temperatures. Higher elevations sat just below freezing during the last warm spell.

The persistent weak layer still exists in pockets, and recent observations show that it has weakened. This layer is spatially and structurally unpredictable (i.e. it has released on a slope after several tracks were put in), and is continually getting buried deeper. There are likely small pockets of the persistent weak layer in our upper start zones. Although this layer is not continuous throughout the urban path?s upper start zones, it could act as a potential trigger point in the weeks to come.

The urban avalanche hazard today is MODERATE. Natural avalanches are unlikely; human-triggered avalanches are possible. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. The snow has adjusted to the new load better than expected. Windslabs are still a concern and fieldwork today will confirm their stability and size. Pockets of the persistent weak layer exist and are the primary concern for urban structures.

For backcountry travelers dangerous avalanche conditions exist. Careful snow pack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential. Yesterday fieldwork found the large, well developed facets continue to weaken, and will become increasingly sensitive with additional load. This is a low predictability, high consequence layer. Reports have it failing unpredictably, having been triggered after supporting multiple skiers in one incident. Human triggered slides are still likely on wind loaded pockets. It is also possible that a small slab release within the newer snow could step down into the persistent facet layer causing a larger avalanche.

The Avalanche Triangle:

Avalanche education has historically used a tool called the 'Avalanche Triangle'. Making up the sides of the triangle are weather, terrain, and snowpack. In the middle of the triangle is the 'human factor'. The human factor refers to mental shortcuts that may influence on our decision making process. This is the basic recipe for an avalanche in the recreational sense. For the urban areas you can replace 'human factor' with 'facilities'.

To form an avalanche, the right terrain is needed, particularly slopes over 35 degrees. The snowpack needs to be deep enough to reach the urban zones. Weather's role is varied, but changing weather often leads to increased instability though added load such as a rain-on-snow event. Finally, if there are no structures, trails, or other facilities near the slide path, there is no threat.

To read more on the avalanche triangle, see the graphic posted below or check out:

http://survival.about.com/od/10/a/Avalanche-Survival-Know-The-Avalanche-Triangle.htm

MOUNTAIN SAVVY

Eaglecrest is running an outreach education program for kids age 12 - 16.

http://www.juneau.org/ecrestftp/MountainSavvy.php

March 21st is the last class of the season. It takes place entirely on snow and is for East and West Bowl riders/skiers that are starting to explore Eaglecrest and it's environs off piste.

The program focuses on working with peers and starting to learn the tools for good decision making in the mountains. Safety gear is provided for those who don't have it and kids who take the class this year will be eligible for a raffle of two separate sets of Beacon, Probe, Shovel, and Pack.

Similar programs in Washington and Utah run $150 a day, but a partnership between the Eaglecrest Ski Patrol, Juneau Mountain Rescue, JSP, and many of our local outdoor retailers means Eaglecrest can enroll kids for just $25. For a 4.5hr course it is a great opportunity.