...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

TODAY...SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION 3 TO 6 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 36. EAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 2 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 31. VARIABLE WIND TO 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 MPH.

Temperatures have remained below freezing in our upper start zones for the past several days. We had moderate to strong southeast winds throughout the day yesterday and evening in our upper start zone elevations. We received about 4 inches of new snow at the Tram and Mt. Juneau in the past 24 hrs.

The forecast calls for another 3-6? (0.7?SWE) of snow at ridge top elevations in the next 24 hours with relatively light winds. The precipitation rates are forecasted to be moderate to heavy at times, which will increase the avalanche danger.

Yesterday moderate southeast winds transported snow in the start zones for the better part of the day. Winds from the southeast to cross load areas such as Thane and Gold Creek slide paths. With a fair amount of new snow over the past several days and more on the way, winds will continue to transport snow in our start zones.

The main avalanche problems today are wind slabs, storm slabs, and the potential for persistent weak layers. The new snow that fell yesterday was observed to be relatively sensitive to human triggers. It was easy to release small wind slab and new storm snow yesterday up at Eaglecrest. With additional loading today wind pockets and storm snow will be sensitive to artificial triggers. I expect the wind pockets/slabs to be sensitive to artificial triggers but not pose a threat to developed structures. There will likely be isolated wind pockets that may release throughout the day.

We may sound like a broken record talking about our persistent weak layer. However, these weak layers are persistent by nature and are still a concern in our snow pack. As snow continues to fall the persistent weak layer is being buried deeper and deeper waiting for a trigger to become reactive. Our persistent weak layer has proven to be unpredictable and spatially variable. This layer is now around 85cm (3?) below the snow surface in many places. Recent fieldwork confirmed the presence of this layer in at one of the recent slides adjacent to Eaglecrest. There are likely small pockets of the persistent weak layer in our upper start zones. Although the persistent weak layer is not continuous throughout the urban path?s upper start zones, areas where it is present could become potential trigger points in the weeks to come.

The urban avalanche hazard is CONSIDERABLE today: Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Be increasingly cautious in or under steeper terrain and in avalanche zones. Monitor avalanche forecasts. Slides are unlikely but could reach near structures if occurring from failure deeper in the snow pack.

Today is a good day to avoid Flume/Perseverance trails and move quickly under Thane Road especially as the snowfall increases this afternoon.

For backcountry travelers dangerous avalanche conditions exist. Careful snow pack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential. Recent fieldwork found wind-sheltered areas continue to harbor large well developed facets that are becoming increasingly sensitive with additional load as demonstrated over the last few days by avalanche activity. This is a low predictability, high consequence layer. Reports have it failing unpredictably, having been triggered after supporting multiple skiers in one incident. Human triggered slides are still likely on wind loaded pockets. It is also possible that a small slab release within the newer snow could step down into the persistent facet layer causing a larger avalanche.

Today?s avalanche tip relates to storm slabs. Here is a definition of a storm slab from the Colorado Avalanche Information Center.

?Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.?

MOUNTAIN SAVVY

Eaglecrest is running an outreach education program for kids age 12 - 16.

http://www.juneau.org/ecrestftp/MountainSavvy.php

March 21st is the last class of the season. It takes place entirely on snow and is for East and West Bowl riders/skiers that are starting to explore Eaglecrest and it's environs off piste.

The program focuses on working with peers and starting to learn the tools for good decision making in the mountains. Safety gear is provided for those who don't have it and kids who take the class this year will be eligible for a raffle of two separate sets of Beacon, Probe, Shovel, and Pack.

Similar programs in Washington and Utah run $150 a day, but a partnership between the Eagelcrest Ski Patrol, Juneau Mountain Rescue, JSP, and many of our local outdoor retailers means Eagelcrest can enroll kids for just $25. For a 4.5hr course it is a great opportunity.