TODAY...PERIODS OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.

TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. LOWS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.

TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 700 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 37. NORTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH BECOMING VARIABLE 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

Temperatures remained just below freezing in our upper start zones. Northerly winds mellowed yesterday evening and switched to the southeast after midnight. We received about an inch of new snow at the Tram and Mt. Juneau overnight.

The forecast calls for another 1-4? of snow at ridge top elevations in the next 24 hours with relatively light winds. Yesterday moderate north/northwest winds transported snow in the start zones for the better part of the day. Winds from the north tend to load the top of our urban slide paths. With a fair amount of new snow over the past several days the winds will continue to transport snow throughout the day today.

The main avalanche problems today are wind slabs and the potential for persistent weak layers. Our persistent weak layer has proven to be unpredictable and spatially variable. This layer is currently around 70cm (2.5') below the snow surface in many places. Recent fieldwork confirmed the presence of this layer in at one of the recent slides adjacent to Eaglecrest. Wind slabs that formed yesterday in our upper start zones may get some additional loading today as the wind continues to transport new snow. I don?t see wind slabs being a major concern in our urban paths, but remember with a change in wind direction different aspects will receive wind loading today. I expect the wind slabs to be sensitive to artificial triggers but not pose a threat to developed structures. There will likely be isolated wind pockets that may release throughout the day. There are likely small pockets of the persistent weak layer in our upper start zones. Although the persistent weak layer is not continuous throughout the urban path?s upper start zones, areas where it is present could become potential trigger points in the weeks to come.

Yesterday there were several reports of a few wind pockets that released with artificial triggers on Douglas. Over the last several days we have seen several natural avalanches as well as human triggered avalanches on Douglas.

The urban avalanche hazard will remain at MODERATE today: Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Be cautious in or under steeper terrain and in avalanche zones. Slides are unlikely but could reach near structures if occurring from failure deeper in the snow pack.

Today is a good day to be avoid the Flume/Perseverance trails and limit exposure time under Thane Road.

For backcountry travelers dangerous avalanche conditions exist. Careful snow pack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential. Recent fieldwork found wind-sheltered areas continue to harbor large well developed facets that are becoming increasingly sensitive with additional load as demonstrated over the last few days by avalanche activity. This is a low predictability, high consequence layer. Reports have it failing unpredictably, having been triggered after supporting multiple skiers in one incident. Human triggered slides are still likely on wind loaded pockets. It is also possible that a small slab release within the newer snow could step down into the persistent facet layer causing a larger avalanche.

Persistent Weak Layers Continued:

For a better understanding of our current snow situation, we can turn to our neighbors in the north. The Yukon Avalanche Association just posted a great video describing their current avalanche problems. Generally less snow has fallen up there at colder temps this winter. While their snow pack is definitely different than ours, there are several similarities and they often deal with this problem through the season.

Here are a few things to look at while you watch:

- Their surface hoar/facet weak layer is presenting itself here as depth hoar (what they are referring to as the Feb 13th layer). These were formed by different processes but exhibit similar behaviors in the snow.

- Our melt-freeze crust is substantially thicker, as we received larger amounts of rain with warm temperatures during formation.

- When they perform their stability tests, watch the snow across the block carefully, lighting makes it a little hard to see the failures.

- Spatial variability, micro-climates, unpredictability. Sound familiar?

You can find the video here: http://youtu.be/iuTEbJpPiiQ

MOUNTAIN SAVVY

Eaglecrest is running an outreach education program for kids age 12 - 16.

http://www.juneau.org/ecrestftp/MountainSavvy.php

March 21st is the last class of the season. It takes place entirely on snow and is for East and West Bowl riders/skiers that are starting to explore Eaglecrest and it's off-piste environs.

The program focuses on working with peers and starting to learn the tools for good decision making in the mountains. Safety gear is provided for those who don't have it and kids who take the class this year will be eligible for a raffle of two separate sets of Beacon, Probe, Shovel, and Pack.

Similar programs in Washington and Utah run $150 a day. Partnership between the Eaglecrest Ski Patrol, Juneau Mountain Rescue, JSP, and many of our local outdoor retailers means Eaglecrest can enroll kids at $25 for the 4.5hr course, a great investment in our future rippers and riders.