From the National Weather Service:

TODAY...SNOW AND RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 39. NORTHWEST WIND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW LATE. LOWS AROUND 31. VARIABLE WIND 10 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

MONDAY...SNOW...MIXING WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.

Temperatures up high have remained just below freezing. Southeasterly winds in the 20s mellowed to the teens by yesterday evening, switching to a northerly breeze in the late evening. Minimal precipitation fell overnight.

The NWS forecast is calling for a spritz of moisture mostly in the morning, continued warmer temperatures, and light winds.

The few inches of light snow from friday evening got redistributed yesterday at ridge top elevations. Several of the Gastineau channel peaks were observed to be actively wind loading through mid-day. There were reports of a few wind pockets that released with artificial triggers, and at least one unconfirmed report described a large area ?whoomph? settlement on Douglas. The last several days have seen several natural avalanches on both the mainland and Douglas.

The main avalanche concerns remain our persistent weak layer, which has proven to be unpredictable and spatially variable. This layer is currently around 70cm (2.5') below the snow surface in many places. Recent fieldwork confirmed the presence of this layer in at one of the recent slides adjacent to Eaglecrest. Existing wind pockets also remain a hazard. These will trend towards stability over the next few days as they adjust to the new load.

The urban avalanche hazard will remain at MODERATE today: Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Be cautious in or under steeper terrain and in avalanche zones. Slides are unlikely but could reach near structures if occurring from failure deeper in the snow pack.

Today is a good day to be cautious if entering the Flume/Perseverance trails and move straight through Thane Rd if you travel in that direction.

For backcountry travelers dangerous avalanche conditions exist. Careful snow pack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential. Recent fieldwork found wind-sheltered areas continue to harbor large well developed facets that are becoming increasingly sensitive with additional load as demonstrated over the last few days by avalanche activity. This is a low predicability, high consequence layer. Reports have it failing unpredictably, having been triggered after supporting multiple skiers in one incident. Human triggered slides are still likely on wind loaded pockets. It is also possible that a small slab release within the newer snow could step down into the persistent facet layer causing a larger avalanche.

Persistent Weak Layers Continued:

For a better understanding of our current snow situation, we can turn to our neighbors in the north. The Yukon Avalanche Association just posted a great video describing their current avalanche problems. Generally less snow has fallen up there at colder temps this winter. While their snow pack is definitely different than ours, there are several similarities and they often deal with this problem through the season.

Here are a few things to look at while you watch:

- Their surface hoar/facet weak layer is presenting itself here as depth hoar (what they are referring to as the Feb 13th layer). These were formed by different processes but exhibit similar behaviors in the snow.

- Our melt-freeze crust is substantially thicker, as we received larger amounts of rain with warm temperatures during formation.

- When they perform their stability tests, watch the snow across the block carefully, lighting makes it a little hard to see the failures.

- Spatial variability, micro-climates, unpredictability. Sound familiar?

You can find the video here: http://youtu.be/iuTEbJpPiiQ

MOUNTAIN SAVVY

Eaglecrest is running an outreach education program for kids age 12 - 16.

http://www.juneau.org/ecrestftp/MountainSavvy.php

March 21st is the last class of the season. It takes place entirely on snow and is for East and West Bowl riders/skiers that are starting to explore Eaglecrest and it's off-piste environs.

The program focuses on working with peers and starting to learn the tools for good decision making in the mountains. Safety gear is provided for those who don't have it and kids who take the class this year will be eligible for a raffle of two separate sets of Beacon, Probe, Shovel, and Pack.

Similar programs in Washington and Utah run $150 a day. Partnership between the Eaglecrest Ski Patrol, Juneau Mountain Rescue, JSP, and many of our local outdoor retailers means Eaglecrest can enroll kids at $25 for the 4.5hr course, a great investment in our future rippers and riders.