Current forecast from the National Weather Service:

TODAY...RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS AROUND 41. NORTHEAST WIND 5
TO 15 MPH.

TONIGHT...SNOW AND RAIN. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. LOWS
AROUND 31. EAST WIND 10 MPH BECOMING VARIABLE LATE.

SUNDAY...RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW LEVEL
500 FEET. HIGHS AROUND 38. NORTHWEST WIND 10 MPH.

Yesterday saw upper elevation temperatures remain just barely below 32F. Variable southerly winds peaked in the 30kt range, transporting snow along the surface much of the day. We also saw a few inches of dense, new snow falling on our start zones.

Today moderate amounts of precipitation are forecasted, with slightly warmer temperatures and mellower winds than yesterday.

Fieldwork was conducted yesterday near the Urban start zones and on Douglas Island, and showed that spatial variability remains high for the buried facet layer. Multiple moderate sized avalanches have been triggered both naturally and by travelers over the last few days, including several on Douglas. The slides that have been examined released on the buried facet layer.

Fieldwork showed that wind loaded pockets are otherwise harboring the weakest snow structure.
The weather has been building up the snow depth in urban start zones, but much of the lower elevations remains relatively snow free, adding friction and obstacles to any slide that may occur. Warming temperatures are also a concern.

The avalanche hazard will remain at MODERATE today: Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Be cautious in or under steeper terrain and in avalanche zones.

Today is a good day to be cautious entering the Flume/Perseverance trails and move through Thane Rd quickly if you need to travel in that direction.

For backcountry travelers dangerous avalanche conditions exist. Careful snow pack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential. Recent fieldwork found wind-sheltered areas continue to harbor large well developed facets that are becoming increasingly sensitive with additional load as demonstrated over the last few days by avalanche activity. This is especially critical given the heavy, wet snow that is falling with transport capable winds. Human triggered slides are likely within the new storm snow as well as wind loaded pockets. It is also possible that a small slab release within the storm snow could step down into the persistent facet layer causing a larger avalanche.

Persistent Slabs Continued:

I wanted to share avalanche forecaster and educator Don Sharaf's recollection of hazard management for a heli-ski operation from a recent article (found in TAR vol. 32 no. 3).

'Roger Atkins (lead guide for CMH [heli-skiing guides]) was the person who made me start thinking in terms of avalanche character [also know as avalanche ?problem? or ?type?]. At the 2004 ISSW [conference] he presented his avalanche character checklist and it instantly resonated with me. I recall his account of spending months dancing around deeply buried facets at perpetual ?fair stability? where very few runs of their run catalog were skied. The next season came along with far more consistent snowfall, and they skied virtually all the runs in their run catalog, despite having the same number of days at ?fair [stability]?. The difference in duration, predictability, and management between persistent slabs and storm slabs is dramatic, even though they may fall under the same hazard rating.'

This quote illustrates the subtleties between avalanche types. Think about the way you manage yourself out there, and how it is affected by the type of avalanche problem or character. We have a mix of easy and difficult to predict problems in the snowpack right now, making conservative decisions a requirement, despite temptation otherwise.

MOUNTAIN SAVVY

Eaglecrest is running an outreach education program for kids age 12 - 16.

http://www.juneau.org/ecrestftp/MountainSavvy.php

March 21st is the last class of the season. It takes place entirely on snow and is for East and West Bowl riders/skiers that are starting to explore Eaglecrest and it's off-piste environs.

The program focuses on working with peers and starting to learn the tools for good decision making in the mountains. Safety gear is provided for those who don't have it and kids who take the class this year will be eligible for a raffle of two separate sets of Beacon, Probe, Shovel, and Pack.

Similar programs in Washington and Utah run $150 a day. Partnership between the Eaglecrest Ski Patrol, Juneau Mountain Rescue, JSP, and many of our local outdoor retailers means Eaglecrest can enroll kids at $25 for the 4.5hr course, a great investment in our future rippers and riders.