Avalanche Advisory Archive Pre-2016
| Date Issued: | 2014-03-10 |
|---|---|
| Danger: | 2 |
| Trend: | 5 |
| Probability: | 0 |
| Size: | 3 |
| Problem: | 0 |
| Discussion: | ... STRONG WIND FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ... TODAY ... NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING ... THEN CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 2000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 43. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH TONIGHT ... WINDY. RAIN ... HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOW LEVEL 1100 FEET. LOWS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH. TUESDAY ... RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 41. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH After about 6pm yesterday temps in the start zones dropped back down below freezing. This most likely created a bit of a superficial rime or melt freeze crust helping to add stability in the short term. We only saw 1mm of new water fall after this happened at the Tram. Precip intensities decreased yesterday afternoon allowing the snowpack a chance to settle a bit, and the near freezing temps have allowed for some bonding of the storm snow as well. High winds and heavy precip are on the way tonight. This subtropical air will bring over an inch of water with it. In what form it will fall into the start zones is the question. At the moment it looks like it will at least start as snow before possibly changing to rain late tonight. This will shoot the hazard up dramatically. The forecasted wind directions are still for cross-loading to even windward scouring of most of the urban zones. Because of this I still don't expect slide sizes to hit Thane Rd or come near Structures. However, walking your dog along the Flume/Perseverance after 4pm today is a really bad idea. The avalanche danger is MODERATE this morning but will rise to CONSIDERABLE this evening. Slides that entrain both snow and mud will be a possibility. Check back around 6pm for potential updates to the avalanche forecast. In the backcountry human triggered slides are likely in wind loaded pockets. Be aware that the faceted layer underlying our last snow cycle two weeks ago still exists on much of Douglas and the Mainland and smaller slides can step down to this layer creating crown lines over a meter deep in the right areas. |
| Tip: | MT JUMBO SLIDE If you haven't been following the news about the avalanche off Missoula MT's Mount Jumbo then now is a good time to start. Family buried by avalanche attempts return to normal - Deadly slide was human triggered -http://ravallirepublic.com/news/state-and-regional/article_ea54d8f6-df03-5aa0-93bf-4a0ef5b8e0c5.html Boy buried in avalanche tried to lick/bite his way out - Needle in a haystack search - Airpockets saved 3 when 120mph avalanche hit - |
| Forecaster: | Chris Eckel |