... STRONG WIND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ...

TODAY ... CLEAR...LOCALLY WINDY. HIGHS 34 TO 42. NEAR DOWNTOWN
JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AND INTERIOR PASSES...NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. ELSEWHERE ... NORTHEAST WIND 10 MPH.

TONIGHT ... CLEAR. LOWS 15 TO 23 ... EXCEPT AROUND 10 ABOVE IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AND INTERIOR PASSES ... NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. ELSEWHERE ... NORTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.

SUNDAY ... SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 31. NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND
DOUGLAS ... NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH.

No new precip. Winds have held steady out of the SE. Temps are still dropping steadily at the Tram, down to almost -5c right now. Still not much snow left for wind transport at ridgetop levels.

Surface hoar is likely to be forming in wind sheltered areas tonight. The Crust/Facet combo responsible for our last avalanche cycle still persists in the alpine on both the Mainland and on Douglas.

Hazard remains at Low for the Urban zones, except for the chance of warm, wet, point releases above the Flume and Perseverance area which still have the potential to step down into either wind slabs or the faceted layer just above the big Melt-Freeze Crust.

So, the hazard is MODERATE today: Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Use caution in or under steeper terrain and in avalanche zones. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Human triggered slides are still possible in backcountry locations, and likely in the few wind sheltered areas above treeline. If you are sledding or skiing keep that in mind and travel accordingly.

DEPTH HOAR

Regardless of what you term it. SE Alaska has a rare (for us) buried faceted layer that will stay with us for a while and it is acting like Depth Hoar does trapped as it is just above our meter thick melt freeze crust from January.

As Canadian avalanche specialist Clair Isrealson once told me, \"Depth hoar is like having your crazy aunt come for a visit. She stays forever and you just never know when she's going to snap.\"

Large-grained depth hoar persists longer than any other kind of weak-layer. And as long as it does, you just tiptoe around and accumulate gray hairs. Usually the larger the grain size, the more persistent the instability.

The time-honored adage among experienced avalanche professionals is: \"Never trust a depth hoar snowpack.\" In other words, it's always guilty until proven innocent.

Carefully watch each loading event all winter--especially the big ones. Then even after you think you've seen the last of it, percolating melt water in the spring will re-activate the depth hoar layer and produce large, wet slab avalanches. Yikes!
The best stability tests for depth hoar listed roughly in the order of reliability: explosive tests, cornice drops, Rutschblock tests, compression tests (do lots of them in representative places), jump on test slopes and pay attention to recent avalanche activity.

Weather isn't quite as reliable unless it's really obvious weather like a heavy loading event or rapid warming of a thin slab overlying depth hoar.

If you can't use active tests, use a thermometer and carefully measure the temperature gradient across the weakest layers. As soon as the temperature gradient drops below the critical level (about 1 degree centigrade per 10 centimeters) then it is gaining strength. But remember that depth hoar is quick to form but takes a long time to gain strength after the temperature gradient is removed. With no additional loading and with a weak-layer of -5 deg C or warmer, it takes several days to a week to stabilize. With cold weak layers and a lightweight overlying layer, it can take much longer.