The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. HIGHS AROUND 45. SOUTHEAST WIND
15 TO 25 MPH...GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.

FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS AROUND 42. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 36. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.

We have seen a great deal of rain and warming over the last few days. Early on this causes tremendous stress on the snowpack. On Tuesday this caused widespread natural avalanches.

As this warm weather and heavy rain persists the rain starts to develop drainage channels throughout the snowpack. These drainage channels help the snowpack to shed the new rain without adding nearly as much to the stress strain equation.

Drainage channels have been established through out snowpack in most places adding to the snowpack stability yet temperatures remain above freezing and we are still seeing large volumes of rain with over 1.5\" in the forecast for the next 24 hours.

Danger levels have decreased significantly since the other day. Many natural avalanches occurred buying down the danger levels in the places that have already slid by removing the mass and the upper weak layers that were present.

Some lingering danger exists as long as we continue to see high precip rates and warm temps. The rain can erode the bonds in the snowpack. The rain at the ground surface level also undercuts the snowpack and erodes the ground surface bonds. Places that are quite steep on slick rock or grass with little or no anchors could still see avalanche activity.

The danger levels went from HIGH Tuesday to Moderate yesterday and yet we still saw avalanches coming down to valley level at snowslide creek along Thane Road.

Be aware that even with Moderate danger avalanches are quite possible... We often show Moderate danger or Low Danger... but notice we don't have an icon for NO danger... Danger always exists... sometimes more sometimes less.

Some of our key avalanche paths have also still not slid such as the White Path. The slab is still hanging there and as long as it does this danger can persist.

Temperatures this morning are +4c at the Tram Summit and +3c at the Eaglecrest Summit. With the tremendous amount of rain we have seen over the last few days there is not much new snow available for wind transport currently somewhat taking wind out of our forecasting equation.

Be cautious if you choose to play near avalanche zones and recognize that until it cools off to below freezing again avalanche danger will linger in places.

metamorphism - as applied to a mountain snowpack, metamorphism refers to changes in snow texture caused by pressure and temperature conditions. The temperature of the snow layer determines the rate of metamorphism, and the temperature change (gradient) across the layer largely determines the type of metamorphism.