The National Weather Service Forecasts-

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...SNOW AND RAIN. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 35. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH.

TONIGHT...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES AND SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
2 TO 6 INCHES...HEAVIEST AMOUNTS JUNEAU AND NORTHWARD. LOWS 29 TO 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.

NEW YEARS DAY...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. HIGHS AROUND 37.
SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.

Temperatures have been consistent and very near the freezing point for the last 5 days at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit.

We have received quite a bit of new snow since that time especially at upper elevations. Overall we have seen 4\" of precip since Christmas Day. We actually lost snow volumes from the 25-27th through the first 30mm of precip at tram summit elevations but much of this may have been new snow at upper elevations. This week started off with some fair winds early in the cycle loading our N-W facing aspects.

We have seen 15cm (6\")of new snow from 27mm of precip in the last 30 hours at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit elevations. This is quite dense snow. We can assume at upper elevations we are seeing even greater snow volumes.

Winds picked up yesterday afternoon ranging from 10-25 for quite some time. More than long enough to keep building wind slabs on those NE-NW Aspects. Where loading began on the NNW facing slopes, last night it changed to the NNE facing slopes. If where you are heading has any northern component to it think about how these winds will affect you. Strongest loading if near summit and ridgeline so use extra caution in those areas.

With a forecast calling for additional snow today Natural Avalanches are possible and avalanche danger is Moderate to Considerable and on the rise. With volumes increasing overnight and into tomorrow as well as a few degrees of temperature rise avalanche conditions will build overnight.

Once the heavier precip begins late this afternoon avalanche danger will become considerable to HIGH. Natural avalanches will be more likely overnight and into tomorrows warming.

Human triggered avalanches are likely today in wind loaded areas. Be sure to use good judgment in your route selection.

We have been fairly lucky in that most of these layers have healed one at a time reducing the slide size potential... yet as we go into this prolonged mid size storm with temperatures near freezing we keep adding layers to the cake. With these near freezing temps we tend to think of rapid healing and the lower layers as mostly stable... but the reality is there could still be areas of weakness primarily from wind loading in any one of our cake layers... so it is important not to underestimate slide size potentials in your decision making process. The question isn't can I start an avalanche... the question is... if I start an avalanche RIGHT HERE... How big is it going to be and what are the potential consequences.

Be safe out there and conservative in your decision making process throughout the next 24-36 hours.

Please avoid the Flume and Perseverance Trail today. Please also do not walk in the gated areas above the Berhands neighborhood. Please also do not park or walk along Thane Road.

Thank you.

As 2013 draws to a close I want to say a special thanks to the residents of the City and Borough of Juneau...

Quite often we feel unlike a small town. We are fortunate to have excellent services and business providing for us unlike many true small towns. We are just big enough that you don't recognize every face walking down the street...

Yet to me in so many ways we are still a small town... and not just a small town.. but like so many other small towns... we're all family...

This is the beginning of my 6th season in the Juneau areas providing the daily avalanche forecast for you. It has been an honor and a privilege to be welcomed into the family with such open arms... I cannot thank each and every one of you enough.

Our Juneau family is amazing with everyone caring for one another and looking out for one another. Everyone wears so many different hats... It is an honor and a privilege to have worked with so many organizations full of such caring people...

Here today I want to say a special thanks to the people involved in our local outdoor community... from the recreation groups to the rescue teams we are a very active community.

I feel so fortunate to not have had any avalanche fatalities in our region since my arrival. This has nothing to do with me or forecasting and everything to do with you... Your good habits, decision making skills, route choices, timing choices, the trained mountain partners you pick, the classes you take, have all added to our local \"Culture of Safety\" as we charge the outdoor life vigorously searching out adventure.

Please keep this \"Culture of Safety\" in mind as we head into 2014... Look out for your friends, your partners, your neighbors, and your Juneau Family!

Thank you for all you do Juneau and lets make 2014 the best year yet!

Special Thanks and Happy New Year,
Tom Mattice