The National Weather Service Forecasts-

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON...

TODAY...SNOW DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 4 TO 8 INCHES. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 10 TO 28 INCHES. TEMPERATURES STEADY AROUND 29. EAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.

TONIGHT...CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. LOWS 25 TO 28. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

FRIDAY...RAIN. SNOW IN THE MENDENHALL VALLEY IN THE MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 2 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL 1000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 36. EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

We have seen significant precip over the last 48 hours. Quite a bit of rain down low and yet quite a bit of snow up high in our mountain avalanche starting zones.

During this new snowfall event we have seen significant windloading. Both top loading and crossloading in our mountain starting zones.

Temps rose slightly during the beginning of the storm but have since cooled once again. Temps over the next 24+ hours are forecast to rise once again which will add new weakness to an already unstable snowpack.

Accumulation rates were high enough during this storm to create weakness in the snowpack. Winds and now temperature are also contributing factors to increasing instability.

All this new snow came to rest on a very spatially variable snowpack. In many of our mountain starting zones we have a shallow snowpack with multiple weak layers. We had near surface faceting pre storm and a deeper layer of facetedd melt forms. Both of which were being easily triggered.

Yesterday both natural and man made avalanches were occuring confirming we are near or at a state of instability on many slopes.

With continued precip today the avalanche advisory calls for Considerable danger.

Natural avalanches are quite possible and human triggered avalanches are likely.

In the urban enviroment we still have a lot of anchors in the avalanche paths down low to help slow the debris. It will also not entrain much additional snow down lower in the paths due to the low snow volumes present.

If you are heading into the mountains today be extremely cautious! The danger is questionably high... but avalanche sizes will allow me to keep the forecast for considerable in the urban enviroment.

These slides are more than large enough to bury, injur or kill a person so please use safe travel practices.

Please avoid the Flume Trail today. Please do not park or spend time in the avalanche paths along Thane road.

Remember to always carry your avalanche transceiver, probe, and shovel. Have a rescue plan and train with your partners!

Keep it safe out there today Juneau.

There is a free 8 hour avalanche awareness course next Saturday Dec 21st at the Eaglecrest Ski Area. This course also includes a little on stability evaluations, route finding, and companion rescue.

To sign up for this course please contact [email protected]

Safe Travel Practices

? Follow terrain features that are least likely to avalanche. Use ridges and areas where the snow has been blown off to ascend or descend.

? Avoid traversing under avalanche slopes. If natural avalanches are likely (high or extreme hazard) or any time there is \"whomping'\" sounds in the snowpack.

? Traverse slopes as high as possible. Whenever crossing a potential avalanche slope cross as high as possible, so as to have as little snow to bury you as possible. Watch out for a falling hazard.

? When traversing slopes travel one at a time. Two reasons for this, one is to avoid having more than one person caught in an avalanche the other is to minimize the load on the slope.

? Avoid climbing under another party. Avalanches can be triggered by the other party often with little consequence to them and burying you.

? Travel one at a time from safe zone to safe zone when ascending or descending gullies. Look for alcoves or walls that will protect you should your partner kick off a small avalanche.

? ? Watch for terrain traps. Make sure that should you be involved in an avalanche that the debris will not be trapped and cause a small slide to have a deep debris pile.

? Watch for the falling hazard even when crossing the most benign looking slopes. Even the smallest of avalanches can be deadly when mixed with a cliff band. This can be important between ice bulges or on ridges.

? Always wear an avalanche transceiver and carry a shovel and probe.