The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 50. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH.

TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS AROUND 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.

THURSDAY...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 45. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 33. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH.

Today 50 degree forecast is quite warm. We have not seen much of that temp recently. Perhaps only one or two days since fall.

Temperatures remained warm overnight not dropping below the freezing mark at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit Elevations. Eaglecrest summit dropped slightly below the freezing point.

We are starting to loose snow fast at lower elevations but continue to have fair snow volumes at upper elevations.

The forecast calls for nearly .75\" of rain over the next 24 hours. Most of this will stay as rain. We have already received nearly .25\" of rain in the last 12 hours. Which actually eroded the snowpack at tram elevations and below.

With diurnal warming and continued precip we may see small avalanches. Nothing large is expected. But with both warm daytime and nightime temps snow around rocks is starting to erode more and the super steep rocky sections may start to clean off.

At much higher elevations we may also see some small amounts of new snow which may be bonding poorly to the icy old snow surface.

Nothing large is expected and yet you may see small areas of snow moving.

Alpha Angle, Beta Angle

Also: Angle of Reach, Runout Angle

The alpha angle is the angle between the horizontal and a line drawn from the highest point of the crown face to the toe of the debris. The alpha angle can be measured for an individual avalanche, but it is more commonly (and usefully) calculated for a specific return period. Extreme values for an alpha angle (such as that for a 100 year or 300 year avalanche) can be determined from historical records, tree ring data, or statistical methods. The alpha angle is also termed the angle of reach or the runout angle.

For 100 year avalanches this angle typically ranges from about 18 to 22 degrees

The Berhands Subdivision is roughly 34degrees from the startzone well inside the alpha angle.

The beta angle is the angle measured to the top of the starting zone from the place where the slope first becomes 10 degrees (locally). This is a terrain feature of the particular path and is not different for different events, as the alpha angle is. An extreme event alpha angle (such as that of a 100-year avalanche) can be estimated from a beta angle using statistical methods, but the parameters vary from one mountain range to another (independent of prevailing climate).