The National Weather Service Forecasts-

TODAY...RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 41. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25
MPH DECREASING TO 10 MPH IN THE MORNING. GUSTS TO 30 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 INCH OR LESS. SNOW LEVEL 1200 FEET IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 31. SOUTHEAST WIND
10 MPH.

SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 MPH.

Temperatures remained constant over the last few days with a few mid day spikes at the Mt Roberts Tram getting to just above the freezing mark. Douglas Island has stayed a little cooler holding some cold air in its valleys.

This mid day warming and high freezing levels have helped to maintain some stability along the channel.

We have seen winds from 20-50 over the last few days which continues to build weakness on windloaded slopes. While winds have been mostly out of the SE they have rotated to the NE several times over the last 4 days adding to the spatial variability.

We have seen 22mm of precipitation over the last 48 hours leaving only 5cm of new snow after settlement and consolidation come into play and yet he have seen closer to a foot of new snow up high over the last 3 days and even more this week.

Yesterday ski triggered avalanches were possible. Also a few small natural avalanches were observed on Douglas Island during the storm the previous night. We are near a state of natural avalanche instability accross the region.

Precip rates were well below forecast over the last 24 hours with only 10mm (.4\") of Snow Water Equivilant (SWE)This has helped us stay away from the natural avalanche cycle and yet was more than enough combined with the winds to build dangerous avalanche conditions for human trigged avalanches.

Yesterday avalanches were created by avalanche control at Eaglecrest to as deep as 77cm snowing us with enough force there is a deep instability in places. Snowpit tests showed with triggers on near surface layers there was the ability for the slab to step down to the deeper weak layers in place.

With not much precip in the day today and a cooling trend over the next 24 hours avalanche danger is Considerable and falling. Natural avalanches are possible and yet not highly likely. Human triggered avalanches remain probable on snow loaded slopes.

Snow machines would have even more ability to trigger these stiff deeper instabilities.

Be careful out there folks.

Please continue to avoid use of the Flume Trail today as precip is still coming in at the warmest temps we have seen all week. As tonight goes into tomorrow this area should become much safer once again.

Stepping Down-

When a slab avalanche slides a short distance and breaks down into deeper weak layers forming a stair-step pattern on the bed surface.

When multiple weak layers exist in the snowpack, often a smaller, shallower avalanche will travel a few feet to a few yards and the added weight and stress will trigger a deeper weak layer, which results in a much larger and more dangerous avalanche. These types of avalanches can be especially dangerous to people because the following scenario: First, the person who triggers the smaller avalanche will ride the first slide down. As the smaller avalanche descends, it triggers a deeper avalanche. By the time the deeper avalanche picks up speed and descends to the bottom, the victim has stopped at the bottom of the slope and the secondary, larger avalanche will pile debris on top of the victim, often burying them very deeply with no hope of a live recovery.

When you deal with a snowpack that has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers, it?s important to notch back your level of exposure because of the dangerous consequences.